A Bayesian framework for accelerated reliability growth testing with multiple sources of uncertainty

Cesar Ruiz, Ed Pohl, Haitao Liao, Kelly M. Sullivan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Reliability growth tests are often used for achieving a target reliability for complex systems via multiple test-fix stages with limited testing resources. Such tests can be sped up via accelerated life testing (ALT) where test units are exposed to harsher-than-normal conditions. In this paper, a Bayesian framework is proposed to analyze ALT data in reliability growth. In particular, a complex system with components that have multiple competing failure modes is considered, and the time to failure of each failure mode is assumed to follow a Weibull distribution. We also assume that the accelerated condition has a fixed time scaling effect on each of the failure modes. In addition, a corrective action with fixed ineffectiveness can be performed at the end of each stage to reduce the occurrence of each failure mode. Under the Bayesian framework, a general model is developed to handle uncertainty on all model parameters, and several special cases with some parameters being known are also studied. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed models in estimating the final reliability of the system and to study the effects of unbiased and biased prior knowledge on the system-level reliability estimates.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalQuality and Reliability Engineering International
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - Jan 1 2018
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Failure modes
Testing
Large scale systems
Weibull distribution
Uncertainty
Complex systems

Keywords

  • accelerated testing
  • Bayesian statistics
  • metropolis-hasting
  • reliability growth

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Management Science and Operations Research

Cite this

A Bayesian framework for accelerated reliability growth testing with multiple sources of uncertainty. / Ruiz, Cesar; Pohl, Ed; Liao, Haitao; Sullivan, Kelly M.

In: Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 01.01.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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