A framework for policy information popularity prediction in New Media

Yin Luo, Fangfang Wang, Feifei Zhao, Jianbin Guo, Lei Wang, Yanni Hao, Daniel Dajun Zeng

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

With the rapid development and wide application of new media, predicting the popularity of policy information on new media is of great significance for understanding and managing public opinion. However, the complexity of the diffusion patterns of policy information has brought great challenges for predicting the popularity of such information. Inspired by the methods of popularity prediction for short text information from social networks, we propose a framework for the popularity prediction of policy information. In our framework, first, the features of policy information are extracted from three dimensions: contextual information, social information and textual information. Then, effective features, such as the topic distribution, popularity competition intensity and hot information relevance, are identified by empirical analysis. Finally, the effective features are input into the prediction model to predict the popularity of policy information. We evaluate the performance of our proposed framework using a real-world dataset and the experimental results show that the framework can efficiently predict the popularity of policy information and that the features that we used are effective in improving the accuracy of policy information popularity prediction. The accurate prediction result could benefit policy makers, allowing them to make better decisions, understand and manage public opinion.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2019 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, ISI 2019
EditorsXiaolong Zheng, Ahmed Abbasi, Michael Chau, Alan Wang, Lina Zhou
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages209-211
Number of pages3
ISBN (Electronic)9781728125046
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2019
Event17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, ISI 2019 - Shenzhen, China
Duration: Jul 1 2019Jul 3 2019

Publication series

Name2019 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, ISI 2019

Conference

Conference17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, ISI 2019
CountryChina
CityShenzhen
Period7/1/197/3/19

Keywords

  • Feature extraction and analysis
  • Policy informatics
  • Policy information popularity prediction
  • Popularity prediction model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Information Systems

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