A model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent contacts

Timothy R. Julian, Robert A Canales, James O. Leckie, Alexandria B. Boehm

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Existing microbial risk assessment models rarely incorporate detailed descriptions of human interaction with fomites. We develop a stochastic-mechanistic model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent fomes-mouth, hand-mouth, and hand-fomes contacts typical of a child under six years of age. This exposure is subsequently translated to risk using a simple static dose-response relationship. Through laboratory experiments, we quantified the mean rate of inactivation for MS2 phage on glass (0.0052/hr) and mean transfer between fingertips and glass (36%). Simulations using these parameters demonstrated that a child's ingested dose from a rotavirus-contaminated ball ranges from 2 to 1,000 virus over a period of one hour, with a median value of 42 virus. These results were heavily influenced by selected values of model parameters, most notably the concentration of rotavirus on fomes, frequency of fomes-mouth contacts, frequency of hand-mouth contacts, and virus transferred from fomes to mouth. The model demonstrated that mouthing of fomes is the primary exposure route, with hand mouthing contributions accounting for less than one-fifth of the child's dose over the first 10 minutes of interaction.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)617-632
Number of pages16
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume29
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2009
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Coriolaceae
Rotavirus
Viruses
Eating
Mouth
Hand
Glass
Bacteriophages
Stochastic models
Risk assessment
Fomites
Levivirus
Experiments

Keywords

  • Exposure assessment
  • Fomites
  • Micro-level activity data
  • Microbial risk assessment
  • Rotavirus
  • Stochastic modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physiology (medical)
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

A model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent contacts. / Julian, Timothy R.; Canales, Robert A; Leckie, James O.; Boehm, Alexandria B.

In: Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 5, 05.2009, p. 617-632.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Julian, Timothy R. ; Canales, Robert A ; Leckie, James O. ; Boehm, Alexandria B. / A model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent contacts. In: Risk Analysis. 2009 ; Vol. 29, No. 5. pp. 617-632.
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