A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change

Derek M Lemoine, Sarah Kapnick

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climateâ ?(tm) s variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)51-55
Number of pages5
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume6
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2016

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top-down approach
climate change
warming
market
climate
economics
projection
economic growth
economic model
costs
economic impact
cost
well-being
global warming
climate modeling
greenhouse gas
economy
weather
modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change. / Lemoine, Derek M; Kapnick, Sarah.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 1, 01.01.2016, p. 51-55.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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