Abstract
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the epidemiological data concerning the 18445 HFMD-infected cases in Beijing in 2008. The main findings are as follows. (i) Seasonal variations in incidence were observed, with a peak observed during the summer season, especially in May. Male patients outnumber female patients by 1.57:1. (ii) Most cases occurred in children 4 years old or younger. Outperforming Weibull distribution and Gamma distribution as to model fitness when analyzing patient ages, log-normal distribution indicates that the estimated mean age is 3.4 years. (iii) The age distribution seems to indicate cyclic peaks with roughly one-year intervals. (iv) Correlation analyses (ρ = 0.9864) show that time of birth in different months has an impact on the chance of being infected by HFMD. Birth month seems to present a high risk factor on infants and young children. (v) The morbidity rate is 132.7/100000 during the HFMD epidemic in Beijing in 2008. The morbidity map shows that the risks of HFMD infection in areas close to the city center and suburbans are much lower than those in the urban-rural transition zones. Spatial risks inferred from the morbidity map demonstrate a clear circular pattern. (vi) The prevention and control measures taken by the public health departments seem to be effective during the summer season, resulting in the early ending of the epidemic (one month earlier than the natural season) and reduced outbreak size.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1142-1149 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Chinese Science Bulletin |
| Volume | 55 |
| Issue number | 12 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2010 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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Keywords
- Beijing
- Epidemiological analysis
- Hand-Foot-Mouth disease
- Morbidity map
- Risk factor
- Spread mechanism
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General
Cite this
An epidemiological analysis of the Beijing 2008 Hand-Foot-Mouth epidemic. / Cao, Zhi Dong; Zeng, Dajun; Wang, Quan Yi; Zheng, Xiao Long; Wang, Fei Yue.
In: Chinese Science Bulletin, Vol. 55, No. 12, 2010, p. 1142-1149.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - An epidemiological analysis of the Beijing 2008 Hand-Foot-Mouth epidemic
AU - Cao, Zhi Dong
AU - Zeng, Dajun
AU - Wang, Quan Yi
AU - Zheng, Xiao Long
AU - Wang, Fei Yue
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - This paper presents an empirical analysis of the epidemiological data concerning the 18445 HFMD-infected cases in Beijing in 2008. The main findings are as follows. (i) Seasonal variations in incidence were observed, with a peak observed during the summer season, especially in May. Male patients outnumber female patients by 1.57:1. (ii) Most cases occurred in children 4 years old or younger. Outperforming Weibull distribution and Gamma distribution as to model fitness when analyzing patient ages, log-normal distribution indicates that the estimated mean age is 3.4 years. (iii) The age distribution seems to indicate cyclic peaks with roughly one-year intervals. (iv) Correlation analyses (ρ = 0.9864) show that time of birth in different months has an impact on the chance of being infected by HFMD. Birth month seems to present a high risk factor on infants and young children. (v) The morbidity rate is 132.7/100000 during the HFMD epidemic in Beijing in 2008. The morbidity map shows that the risks of HFMD infection in areas close to the city center and suburbans are much lower than those in the urban-rural transition zones. Spatial risks inferred from the morbidity map demonstrate a clear circular pattern. (vi) The prevention and control measures taken by the public health departments seem to be effective during the summer season, resulting in the early ending of the epidemic (one month earlier than the natural season) and reduced outbreak size.
AB - This paper presents an empirical analysis of the epidemiological data concerning the 18445 HFMD-infected cases in Beijing in 2008. The main findings are as follows. (i) Seasonal variations in incidence were observed, with a peak observed during the summer season, especially in May. Male patients outnumber female patients by 1.57:1. (ii) Most cases occurred in children 4 years old or younger. Outperforming Weibull distribution and Gamma distribution as to model fitness when analyzing patient ages, log-normal distribution indicates that the estimated mean age is 3.4 years. (iii) The age distribution seems to indicate cyclic peaks with roughly one-year intervals. (iv) Correlation analyses (ρ = 0.9864) show that time of birth in different months has an impact on the chance of being infected by HFMD. Birth month seems to present a high risk factor on infants and young children. (v) The morbidity rate is 132.7/100000 during the HFMD epidemic in Beijing in 2008. The morbidity map shows that the risks of HFMD infection in areas close to the city center and suburbans are much lower than those in the urban-rural transition zones. Spatial risks inferred from the morbidity map demonstrate a clear circular pattern. (vi) The prevention and control measures taken by the public health departments seem to be effective during the summer season, resulting in the early ending of the epidemic (one month earlier than the natural season) and reduced outbreak size.
KW - Beijing
KW - Epidemiological analysis
KW - Hand-Foot-Mouth disease
KW - Morbidity map
KW - Risk factor
KW - Spread mechanism
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77952251558&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77952251558&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11434-010-0144-0
DO - 10.1007/s11434-010-0144-0
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:77952251558
VL - 55
SP - 1142
EP - 1149
JO - Science Bulletin
JF - Science Bulletin
SN - 2095-9273
IS - 12
ER -