Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as earth's troposphere reaches 2° C above preindustrial levels

David Ainley, Joellen Russell, Stephanie Jenouvrier, Eric Woehler, Philip O B Lyver, William R. Fraser, Gerald L. Kooyman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

115 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025-2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennialscale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' Zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: ∼50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and ∼75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)49-66
Number of pages18
JournalEcological Monographs
Volume80
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2010

Fingerprint

penguins
troposphere
pack ice
ice
habitat
habitats
persistence
ice thickness
breeding population
sea ice
modeling
polynya
jet stream
population distribution
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ice shelf
ice cover
sediment core
population size
European Union

Keywords

  • 2°c warming
  • Adélie penguin
  • Antarctica; climate change
  • Climate modeling
  • Emperor penguin
  • Habitat optimum
  • Sea ice

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as earth's troposphere reaches 2° C above preindustrial levels. / Ainley, David; Russell, Joellen; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Woehler, Eric; Lyver, Philip O B; Fraser, William R.; Kooyman, Gerald L.

In: Ecological Monographs, Vol. 80, No. 1, 02.2010, p. 49-66.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ainley, David ; Russell, Joellen ; Jenouvrier, Stephanie ; Woehler, Eric ; Lyver, Philip O B ; Fraser, William R. ; Kooyman, Gerald L. / Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as earth's troposphere reaches 2° C above preindustrial levels. In: Ecological Monographs. 2010 ; Vol. 80, No. 1. pp. 49-66.
@article{1e5a8e71195848379216c149152004e6,
title = "Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as earth's troposphere reaches 2° C above preindustrial levels",
abstract = "We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Ad{\'e}lie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025-2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennialscale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' Zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: ∼50{\%} of Emperor colonies (40{\%} of breeding population) and ∼75{\%} of Ad{\'e}lie colonies (70{\%} of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Ad{\'e}lie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Ad{\'e}lies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.",
keywords = "2°c warming, Ad{\'e}lie penguin, Antarctica; climate change, Climate modeling, Emperor penguin, Habitat optimum, Sea ice",
author = "David Ainley and Joellen Russell and Stephanie Jenouvrier and Eric Woehler and Lyver, {Philip O B} and Fraser, {William R.} and Kooyman, {Gerald L.}",
year = "2010",
month = "2",
doi = "10.1890/08-2289.1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "80",
pages = "49--66",
journal = "Ecological Monographs",
issn = "0012-9615",
publisher = "Ecological Society of America",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as earth's troposphere reaches 2° C above preindustrial levels

AU - Ainley, David

AU - Russell, Joellen

AU - Jenouvrier, Stephanie

AU - Woehler, Eric

AU - Lyver, Philip O B

AU - Fraser, William R.

AU - Kooyman, Gerald L.

PY - 2010/2

Y1 - 2010/2

N2 - We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025-2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennialscale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' Zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: ∼50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and ∼75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.

AB - We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025-2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennialscale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' Zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: ∼50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and ∼75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.

KW - 2°c warming

KW - Adélie penguin

KW - Antarctica; climate change

KW - Climate modeling

KW - Emperor penguin

KW - Habitat optimum

KW - Sea ice

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77649199045&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77649199045&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1890/08-2289.1

DO - 10.1890/08-2289.1

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:77649199045

VL - 80

SP - 49

EP - 66

JO - Ecological Monographs

JF - Ecological Monographs

SN - 0012-9615

IS - 1

ER -