Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries

Yu Liu; Wenju Cai; Changfeng Sun; Huiming Song; Kim M. Cobb; Jianping Li; Steven W. Leavitt; Lixin Wu; Qiufang Cai; Ruoshi Liu; Benjamin Ng; Paolo Cherubini; Ulf Büntgen; Yi Song; Guojian Wang; Ying Lei; Libin Yan; Qiang Li; Yongyong Ma; Congxi Fang; Junyan Sun; Xuxiang Li; Deliang Chen; Hans W. Linderholm

doi:10.1029/2019GL082497

Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries

Yu Liu, Wenju Cai, Changfeng Sun, Huiming Song, Kim M. Cobb, Jianping Li, Steven W. Leavitt, Lixin Wu, Qiufang Cai, Ruoshi Liu, Benjamin Ng, Paolo Cherubini, Ulf Büntgen, Yi Song, Guojian Wang, Ying Lei, Libin Yan, Qiang Li, Yongyong Ma, Congxi FangJunyan Sun, Xuxiang Li, Deliang Chen, Hans W. Linderholm

Tree-Ring Research, Laboratory of

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24 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	5469-5479
Number of pages	11
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	46
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082497
State	Published - May 28 2019

Keywords

Asian Summer Monsoon
anthropogenic aerosol
precipitation reconstruction
tree ring chronology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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Liu, Y., Cai, W., Sun, C., Song, H., Cobb, K. M., Li, J., Leavitt, S. W., Wu, L., Cai, Q., Liu, R., Ng, B., Cherubini, P., Büntgen, U., Song, Y., Wang, G., Lei, Y., Yan, L., Li, Q., Ma, Y., ... Linderholm, H. W. (2019). Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(10), 5469-5479. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082497

Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries. / Liu, Yu; Cai, Wenju; Sun, Changfeng; Song, Huiming; Cobb, Kim M.; Li, Jianping; Leavitt, Steven W.; Wu, Lixin; Cai, Qiufang; Liu, Ruoshi; Ng, Benjamin; Cherubini, Paolo; Büntgen, Ulf; Song, Yi; Wang, Guojian; Lei, Ying; Yan, Libin; Li, Qiang; Ma, Yongyong; Fang, Congxi; Sun, Junyan; Li, Xuxiang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, No. 10, 28.05.2019, p. 5469-5479.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Liu, Y, Cai, W, Sun, C, Song, H, Cobb, KM, Li, J, Leavitt, SW, Wu, L, Cai, Q, Liu, R, Ng, B, Cherubini, P, Büntgen, U, Song, Y, Wang, G, Lei, Y, Yan, L, Li, Q, Ma, Y, Fang, C, Sun, J, Li, X, Chen, D & Linderholm, HW 2019, 'Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 46, no. 10, pp. 5469-5479. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082497

Liu, Yu ; Cai, Wenju ; Sun, Changfeng ; Song, Huiming ; Cobb, Kim M. ; Li, Jianping ; Leavitt, Steven W. ; Wu, Lixin ; Cai, Qiufang ; Liu, Ruoshi ; Ng, Benjamin ; Cherubini, Paolo ; Büntgen, Ulf ; Song, Yi ; Wang, Guojian ; Lei, Ying ; Yan, Libin ; Li, Qiang ; Ma, Yongyong ; Fang, Congxi ; Sun, Junyan ; Li, Xuxiang ; Chen, Deliang ; Linderholm, Hans W. / Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2019 ; Vol. 46, No. 10. pp. 5469-5479.

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title = "Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries",

abstract = "The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease.",

keywords = "Asian Summer Monsoon, anthropogenic aerosol, precipitation reconstruction, tree ring chronology",

author = "Yu Liu and Wenju Cai and Changfeng Sun and Huiming Song and Cobb, {Kim M.} and Jianping Li and Leavitt, {Steven W.} and Lixin Wu and Qiufang Cai and Ruoshi Liu and Benjamin Ng and Paolo Cherubini and Ulf B{\"u}ntgen and Yi Song and Guojian Wang and Ying Lei and Libin Yan and Qiang Li and Yongyong Ma and Congxi Fang and Junyan Sun and Xuxiang Li and Deliang Chen and Linderholm, {Hans W.}",

note = "Funding Information: This study was jointly supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41630531), the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control (DQGG0104), Chinese Academy of Sciences (QYZDJ–SSW– DQC021, XDPB05, and GJHZ1777), the Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology. Data are available via the NOAA online server. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",

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AU - Liu, Yu

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AU - Sun, Changfeng

AU - Song, Huiming

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Li, Jianping

AU - Leavitt, Steven W.

AU - Wu, Lixin

AU - Cai, Qiufang

AU - Liu, Ruoshi

AU - Ng, Benjamin

AU - Cherubini, Paolo

AU - Büntgen, Ulf

AU - Song, Yi

AU - Wang, Guojian

AU - Lei, Ying

AU - Yan, Libin

AU - Li, Qiang

AU - Ma, Yongyong

AU - Fang, Congxi

AU - Sun, Junyan

AU - Li, Xuxiang

AU - Chen, Deliang

AU - Linderholm, Hans W.

N1 - Funding Information: This study was jointly supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41630531), the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control (DQGG0104), Chinese Academy of Sciences (QYZDJ–SSW– DQC021, XDPB05, and GJHZ1777), the Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology. Data are available via the NOAA online server. Publisher Copyright: ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

PY - 2019/5/28

Y1 - 2019/5/28

N2 - The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease.

AB - The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease.

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KW - precipitation reconstruction

KW - tree ring chronology

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ER -

Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries

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Keywords

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