Application of a stochastic model to estimate children's short-term residential exposure to lead

Robert A Canales, James O. Leckie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Cumulative and Aggregate Simulation of Exposure (CASE) framework is an innovative simulation tool for exploring non-dietary exposures to environmental contaminants. Built upon the Dermal Exposure Reduction Model (DERM) and established methods for collecting detailed human activity patterns, the CASE framework improves upon its predecessor. Although prompted in part by the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 and the need to assess aggregate exposure to pesticides, the framework was designed to be flexible enough to assess exposure to other contaminants. This paper examines features of the CASE framework in an illustrative application estimating children's dermal and non-dietary ingestion exposure to lead in the residential environment. Concentration values in various media are taken from a nationwide study and exposure factors are obtained from the literature. Activity pattern input includes sequential micro-level activities collected for 20 children (ages 1 through 6). Modeled results are explored via classification trees and sensitivity analysis. Results of each exposure route are also compared to independent data. Median dermal exposure estimates were 589 and 558 μg/m3 for the right and left hands, respectively, with the resulting output most sensitive to exposure factor terms. The simulation estimated a median non-dietary ingestion rate of 9.5 μg of lead per day with estimates most sensitive to the surface area of mouthed objects.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)737-745
Number of pages9
JournalStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume21
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2007
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Stochastic models
Stochastic Model
Estimate
Impurities
Pesticides
Sensitivity analysis
Lead
simulation
activity pattern
Children
exposure
Simulation
Classification Tree
pollutant
ingestion rate
Model Reduction
food quality
Surface area
Simulation Tool
Sensitivity Analysis

Keywords

  • Children
  • Dermal exposure
  • Environmental health
  • Exposure assessment
  • Lead
  • Non-dietary ingestion exposure

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Civil and Structural Engineering

Cite this

Application of a stochastic model to estimate children's short-term residential exposure to lead. / Canales, Robert A; Leckie, James O.

In: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 21, No. 6, 11.2007, p. 737-745.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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