Are stocks riskier over the long run? Taking cues from economic theory

Doron Avramov, Doron Avramov, Scott H Cederburg, Katarína Lučivjanská

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We study whether stocks are riskier or safer in the long run from the perspective of Bayesian investors who employ the long-run risk, habit formation, or prospect theory models to form prior beliefs about return dynamics. Economic theory delivers important guidance for long-run investment opportunities. Specifically, incorporating prior information from the habit formation or prospect theory models reinforces beliefs in mean reversion and inferences that stocks are safer over longer horizons. Conversely, investors with long-run risk priors perceive weaker mean reversion and riskier equities. Model-based information is particularly important for inferences about uncertainty in the dividend growth component of returns. (JEL C11, G11, G12)

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)556-594
Number of pages39
JournalReview of Financial Studies
Volume31
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2018

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Economic theory
Inference
Mean reversion
Investors
Habit formation
Prospect theory
Investment opportunities
Dividends
Equity
Prior information
Guidance
Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

Are stocks riskier over the long run? Taking cues from economic theory. / Avramov, Doron; Avramov, Doron; Cederburg, Scott H; Lučivjanská, Katarína.

In: Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 31, No. 2, 01.01.2018, p. 556-594.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Avramov, Doron ; Avramov, Doron ; Cederburg, Scott H ; Lučivjanská, Katarína. / Are stocks riskier over the long run? Taking cues from economic theory. In: Review of Financial Studies. 2018 ; Vol. 31, No. 2. pp. 556-594.
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