Planning for Effects Based Operations (EBO) requires understanding not just immediate effects - bomb damage and casualties - but also non-immediate secondary effects. This is difficult because secondary effects involve complex interactions of political, military, economic, social, infrastructure and information (PMESII) factors. Indeed, our experience in Bosnia, Somalia and Iraq implies that the psychological hearts-and-minds effects are often of greater importance in the long run than the primary military ones. We present the Asymmetric Threat Assessment Tool (ATAT), an agent based society simulator designed to explicitly model interacting causal chains on both physical and psychological levels. We discuss the use of a prototype of the tool in a Joint Forces Integrated Battlefield Command (IBC) experiment where it provided "what-if" analysis of situation dependent actions and reactions.