Bioterrorism event detection based on the Markov switching model

A simulated anthrax outbreak study

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The threat of infectious disease outbreaks and bioterrorism attacks has stimulated the development of syndromic surveillance systems, which focus on using pre-diagnostic data such as emergency department chief complaints and over-the-counter (OTC) drug sales to detect bioterrorism events in a timely manner. A key function of syndromic surveillance systems is detecting possible bioterrorism events from time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel temporal outbreak detection method based on the Markov switching model, a special case of hidden Markov models. The model is motivated to address several computational problems with existing detection schemes concerning the inconsistency in parameter estimation and the resulting undesired detection performance. Preliminary evaluation using simulated outbreaks injected on authentic time series shows that our method outperforms benchmark methods in terms of outbreak detection speed and detection sensitivity at given levels of false alarm rates.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationIEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008
Pages76-81
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008
EventIEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008 - Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China
Duration: Jun 17 2008Jun 20 2008

Other

OtherIEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008
CountryTaiwan, Province of China
CityTaipei
Period6/17/086/20/08

Fingerprint

Bioterrorism
Time series
Hidden Markov models
Parameter estimation
Sales

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Information Systems

Cite this

Lu, H. M., Zeng, D., & Chen, H. (2008). Bioterrorism event detection based on the Markov switching model: A simulated anthrax outbreak study. In IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008 (pp. 76-81). [4565033] https://doi.org/10.1109/ISI.2008.4565033

Bioterrorism event detection based on the Markov switching model : A simulated anthrax outbreak study. / Lu, Hsin Min; Zeng, Dajun; Chen, Hsinchun.

IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008. 2008. p. 76-81 4565033.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Lu, HM, Zeng, D & Chen, H 2008, Bioterrorism event detection based on the Markov switching model: A simulated anthrax outbreak study. in IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008., 4565033, pp. 76-81, IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008, Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China, 6/17/08. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISI.2008.4565033
Lu HM, Zeng D, Chen H. Bioterrorism event detection based on the Markov switching model: A simulated anthrax outbreak study. In IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008. 2008. p. 76-81. 4565033 https://doi.org/10.1109/ISI.2008.4565033
Lu, Hsin Min ; Zeng, Dajun ; Chen, Hsinchun. / Bioterrorism event detection based on the Markov switching model : A simulated anthrax outbreak study. IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008, IEEE ISI 2008. 2008. pp. 76-81
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