Bivariate drought recurrence analysis using tree ring reconstructions

Javier González, Juan B Valdes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

68 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Droughts may be represented by two main characteristics-duration and severity. In this paper, a general methodology to evaluate the frequency and risk of the occurrence of droughts is presented using a bivariate drought characterization. The theory of runs is applied to model drought recurrence as an alternating renewal process, describing droughts simultaneously in terms of their durations and severities. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, tree ring reconstructions of droughts provide information about past events, allowing the analysis. An approach to adapt and include dendrochronology reconstructions combined with historical records to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses the stochastic structure of the residuals of paleo reconstructions to generate equally likely representations of past drought events. The procedure was applied to paleo and historical records in Texas Climatic Division 5 and compared with univariate analyses. The application shows the bivariate analysis advantages in drought characterization.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)247-258
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume8
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2003

Fingerprint

Drought
tree ring
drought
historical record
analysis
dendrochronology
methodology

Keywords

  • Dendrochronology
  • Droughts
  • Frequency analysis
  • Probability distribution functions

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Civil and Structural Engineering

Cite this

Bivariate drought recurrence analysis using tree ring reconstructions. / González, Javier; Valdes, Juan B.

In: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 5, 09.2003, p. 247-258.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{5d8de65392d040d7aab8ea6070faece4,
title = "Bivariate drought recurrence analysis using tree ring reconstructions",
abstract = "Droughts may be represented by two main characteristics-duration and severity. In this paper, a general methodology to evaluate the frequency and risk of the occurrence of droughts is presented using a bivariate drought characterization. The theory of runs is applied to model drought recurrence as an alternating renewal process, describing droughts simultaneously in terms of their durations and severities. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, tree ring reconstructions of droughts provide information about past events, allowing the analysis. An approach to adapt and include dendrochronology reconstructions combined with historical records to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses the stochastic structure of the residuals of paleo reconstructions to generate equally likely representations of past drought events. The procedure was applied to paleo and historical records in Texas Climatic Division 5 and compared with univariate analyses. The application shows the bivariate analysis advantages in drought characterization.",
keywords = "Dendrochronology, Droughts, Frequency analysis, Probability distribution functions",
author = "Javier Gonz{\'a}lez and Valdes, {Juan B}",
year = "2003",
month = "9",
doi = "10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2003)8:5(247)",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "8",
pages = "247--258",
journal = "Journal of Hydrologic Engineering - ASCE",
issn = "1084-0699",
publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",
number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Bivariate drought recurrence analysis using tree ring reconstructions

AU - González, Javier

AU - Valdes, Juan B

PY - 2003/9

Y1 - 2003/9

N2 - Droughts may be represented by two main characteristics-duration and severity. In this paper, a general methodology to evaluate the frequency and risk of the occurrence of droughts is presented using a bivariate drought characterization. The theory of runs is applied to model drought recurrence as an alternating renewal process, describing droughts simultaneously in terms of their durations and severities. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, tree ring reconstructions of droughts provide information about past events, allowing the analysis. An approach to adapt and include dendrochronology reconstructions combined with historical records to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses the stochastic structure of the residuals of paleo reconstructions to generate equally likely representations of past drought events. The procedure was applied to paleo and historical records in Texas Climatic Division 5 and compared with univariate analyses. The application shows the bivariate analysis advantages in drought characterization.

AB - Droughts may be represented by two main characteristics-duration and severity. In this paper, a general methodology to evaluate the frequency and risk of the occurrence of droughts is presented using a bivariate drought characterization. The theory of runs is applied to model drought recurrence as an alternating renewal process, describing droughts simultaneously in terms of their durations and severities. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, tree ring reconstructions of droughts provide information about past events, allowing the analysis. An approach to adapt and include dendrochronology reconstructions combined with historical records to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses the stochastic structure of the residuals of paleo reconstructions to generate equally likely representations of past drought events. The procedure was applied to paleo and historical records in Texas Climatic Division 5 and compared with univariate analyses. The application shows the bivariate analysis advantages in drought characterization.

KW - Dendrochronology

KW - Droughts

KW - Frequency analysis

KW - Probability distribution functions

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=18144448895&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=18144448895&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2003)8:5(247)

DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2003)8:5(247)

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:18144448895

VL - 8

SP - 247

EP - 258

JO - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering - ASCE

JF - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering - ASCE

SN - 1084-0699

IS - 5

ER -