British Parties in the Balance

A Time-Series Analysis of Long-Term Trends In Labour and Conservative Support

William T Mishler, Marilyn Hoskin, Roy Fitzgerald

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

21 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The electoral domination of the Conservative party during the past decade has been interpreted by many as evidence of a long-term shift in the balance of public support from Labour to the Conservatives, This article argues that such a shift has not occurred. Rather, the stability apparent in recent election results disguises considerable underlying volatility. The balance of public support between the major parties continues to be highly unstable and subject to large and precipitous fluctuations in response to relatively small economic changes and ordinary political events. Recent Conservative victories appear to be the results more of good timing and luck than of any fundamental, long-term dynamic in British politics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)211-236
Number of pages26
JournalBritish Journal of Political Science
Volume19
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 1989
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

time series analysis
public support
labor
conservative party
election result
trend
economic change
domination
fluctuation
politics
event
evidence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science

Cite this

British Parties in the Balance : A Time-Series Analysis of Long-Term Trends In Labour and Conservative Support. / Mishler, William T; Hoskin, Marilyn; Fitzgerald, Roy.

In: British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1989, p. 211-236.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{d36ea07f276e45cd87d9668b97951332,
title = "British Parties in the Balance: A Time-Series Analysis of Long-Term Trends In Labour and Conservative Support",
abstract = "The electoral domination of the Conservative party during the past decade has been interpreted by many as evidence of a long-term shift in the balance of public support from Labour to the Conservatives, This article argues that such a shift has not occurred. Rather, the stability apparent in recent election results disguises considerable underlying volatility. The balance of public support between the major parties continues to be highly unstable and subject to large and precipitous fluctuations in response to relatively small economic changes and ordinary political events. Recent Conservative victories appear to be the results more of good timing and luck than of any fundamental, long-term dynamic in British politics.",
author = "Mishler, {William T} and Marilyn Hoskin and Roy Fitzgerald",
year = "1989",
doi = "10.1017/S0007123400005445",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "19",
pages = "211--236",
journal = "British Journal of Political Science",
issn = "0007-1234",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - British Parties in the Balance

T2 - A Time-Series Analysis of Long-Term Trends In Labour and Conservative Support

AU - Mishler, William T

AU - Hoskin, Marilyn

AU - Fitzgerald, Roy

PY - 1989

Y1 - 1989

N2 - The electoral domination of the Conservative party during the past decade has been interpreted by many as evidence of a long-term shift in the balance of public support from Labour to the Conservatives, This article argues that such a shift has not occurred. Rather, the stability apparent in recent election results disguises considerable underlying volatility. The balance of public support between the major parties continues to be highly unstable and subject to large and precipitous fluctuations in response to relatively small economic changes and ordinary political events. Recent Conservative victories appear to be the results more of good timing and luck than of any fundamental, long-term dynamic in British politics.

AB - The electoral domination of the Conservative party during the past decade has been interpreted by many as evidence of a long-term shift in the balance of public support from Labour to the Conservatives, This article argues that such a shift has not occurred. Rather, the stability apparent in recent election results disguises considerable underlying volatility. The balance of public support between the major parties continues to be highly unstable and subject to large and precipitous fluctuations in response to relatively small economic changes and ordinary political events. Recent Conservative victories appear to be the results more of good timing and luck than of any fundamental, long-term dynamic in British politics.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84976084858&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84976084858&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S0007123400005445

DO - 10.1017/S0007123400005445

M3 - Article

VL - 19

SP - 211

EP - 236

JO - British Journal of Political Science

JF - British Journal of Political Science

SN - 0007-1234

IS - 2

ER -