Can nonlinear dynamics elucidate mechanisms in ecology and epidemiology?

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Using recently developed methods in nonlinear dynamics, two hypotheses often advanced to account for recurrent outbreaks of childhood diseases such as measles are investigated. The first, maintenance of otherwise damped oscillations by noise, appears incapable of reproducing essential features of the data. The second, cycles and chaos sustained by seasonal variation in contact rates gives qualitative and quantitative agreement between model and observation. It is concluded that nonlinear dynamics offers a methodology which may allow students of ecology and epidemiology to distinguish between competing mechanistic hypotheses.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)221-252
Number of pages32
JournalIMA J.MATH.APPL.MED.BIOL.
Volume2
Issue number4
StatePublished - 1985

Fingerprint

measles
Epidemiology
Nonlinear Dynamics
chaotic dynamics
Ecology
epidemiology
student
seasonal variation
oscillation
ecology
methodology
Measles
childhood
Chaos theory
Damped
Disease Outbreaks
Noise
Chaos
students
Maintenance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Mathematics (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Can nonlinear dynamics elucidate mechanisms in ecology and epidemiology? / Schaffer, W. M.

In: IMA J.MATH.APPL.MED.BIOL., Vol. 2, No. 4, 1985, p. 221-252.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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