Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models

Francina Dominguez, E. Rivera, D. P. Lettenmaier, Christopher Castro

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

87 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL05803
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume39
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - 2012

Fingerprint

climate models
regional climate
winter
climate
climate modeling
return period
global climate
simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Geophysics

Cite this

@article{dd36d95b3bd24f3e968858b160bf93b6,
title = "Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models",
abstract = "We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6{\%} increase in 20-year return period and 14.4{\%} increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5{\%} in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.",
author = "Francina Dominguez and E. Rivera and Lettenmaier, {D. P.} and Christopher Castro",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1029/2011GL050762",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "39",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models

AU - Dominguez, Francina

AU - Rivera, E.

AU - Lettenmaier, D. P.

AU - Castro, Christopher

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.

AB - We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84857949332&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84857949332&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2011GL050762

DO - 10.1029/2011GL050762

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84857949332

VL - 39

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 5

M1 - L05803

ER -