Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies

Y. Liu, M. Mahmoud, H. Hartmann, S. Stewart, T. Wagener, D. Semmens, R. Stewart, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, D. Dominguez, D. Hulse, R. Letcher, B. Rashleigh, C. Smith, R. Street, J. Ticehurst, M. Twery, H. van Delden, D. White

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact and integrated assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land cover and land use changes, population growth, economic development and technological changes. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts often requires complex integrated modelling frameworks that represent environmental and socioeconomic systems to the best of our knowledge, including assumptions about plausible future conditions. In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved, and include estimation and communication of uncertainties, to establish transparency, credibility and relevance of scenario results among the stakeholders. This paper reviews the state of the art of scenario development and analysis, proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental studies and discusses existing issues. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty involved in scenario studies, construction of scenarios of a more variable nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)145-162
Number of pages18
JournalDevelopments in Integrated Environmental Assessment
Volume3
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008

Fingerprint

environmental impact assessment
stakeholder
technological change
transparency
land use change
population growth
land cover
economic development
environmental impact
decision making
communication
climate change
resource
modeling
analysis
recommendation
state of the art
environmental study
evaluation
scenario analysis

Keywords

  • alternative futures
  • environmental impact assessment
  • scenario analysis
  • scenarios
  • uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies. / Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai; Dominguez, D.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, B.; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van Delden, H.; White, D.

In: Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, Vol. 3, 2008, p. 145-162.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Liu, Y, Mahmoud, M, Hartmann, H, Stewart, S, Wagener, T, Semmens, D, Stewart, R, Gupta, HV, Dominguez, D, Hulse, D, Letcher, R, Rashleigh, B, Smith, C, Street, R, Ticehurst, J, Twery, M, van Delden, H & White, D 2008, 'Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies', Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, vol. 3, pp. 145-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1
Liu, Y. ; Mahmoud, M. ; Hartmann, H. ; Stewart, S. ; Wagener, T. ; Semmens, D. ; Stewart, R. ; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai ; Dominguez, D. ; Hulse, D. ; Letcher, R. ; Rashleigh, B. ; Smith, C. ; Street, R. ; Ticehurst, J. ; Twery, M. ; van Delden, H. ; White, D. / Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies. In: Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment. 2008 ; Vol. 3. pp. 145-162.
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