Abstract
Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact and integrated assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land cover and land use changes, population growth, economic development and technological changes. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts often requires complex integrated modelling frameworks that represent environmental and socioeconomic systems to the best of our knowledge, including assumptions about plausible future conditions. In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved, and include estimation and communication of uncertainties, to establish transparency, credibility and relevance of scenario results among the stakeholders. This paper reviews the state of the art of scenario development and analysis, proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental studies and discusses existing issues. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty involved in scenario studies, construction of scenarios of a more variable nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 145-162 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment |
| Volume | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2008 |
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Keywords
- alternative futures
- environmental impact assessment
- scenario analysis
- scenarios
- uncertainty
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
Cite this
Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies. / Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai; Dominguez, D.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, B.; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van Delden, H.; White, D.
In: Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, Vol. 3, 2008, p. 145-162.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies
AU - Liu, Y.
AU - Mahmoud, M.
AU - Hartmann, H.
AU - Stewart, S.
AU - Wagener, T.
AU - Semmens, D.
AU - Stewart, R.
AU - Gupta, Hoshin Vijai
AU - Dominguez, D.
AU - Hulse, D.
AU - Letcher, R.
AU - Rashleigh, B.
AU - Smith, C.
AU - Street, R.
AU - Ticehurst, J.
AU - Twery, M.
AU - van Delden, H.
AU - White, D.
PY - 2008
Y1 - 2008
N2 - Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact and integrated assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land cover and land use changes, population growth, economic development and technological changes. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts often requires complex integrated modelling frameworks that represent environmental and socioeconomic systems to the best of our knowledge, including assumptions about plausible future conditions. In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved, and include estimation and communication of uncertainties, to establish transparency, credibility and relevance of scenario results among the stakeholders. This paper reviews the state of the art of scenario development and analysis, proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental studies and discusses existing issues. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty involved in scenario studies, construction of scenarios of a more variable nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community.
AB - Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact and integrated assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land cover and land use changes, population growth, economic development and technological changes. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts often requires complex integrated modelling frameworks that represent environmental and socioeconomic systems to the best of our knowledge, including assumptions about plausible future conditions. In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved, and include estimation and communication of uncertainties, to establish transparency, credibility and relevance of scenario results among the stakeholders. This paper reviews the state of the art of scenario development and analysis, proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental studies and discusses existing issues. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty involved in scenario studies, construction of scenarios of a more variable nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community.
KW - alternative futures
KW - environmental impact assessment
KW - scenario analysis
KW - scenarios
KW - uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=51449117924&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=51449117924&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1
DO - 10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:51449117924
VL - 3
SP - 145
EP - 162
JO - Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment
JF - Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment
SN - 1574-101X
ER -