TY - JOUR
T1 - Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-west
T2 - A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections
AU - Serrat-Capdevila, Aleix
AU - Valdes, Juan B.
AU - Dominguez, Francina
AU - Rajagopal, Seshadri
N1 - Funding Information:
The lead author gratefully acknowledges the International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM-UNESCO) for his funding support. Some of the abcd model codes were adapted from Guillermo Martinez and Hoshin V. Gupta and we thank them for their support. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset, as well as the Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections archive.
PY - 2013/6
Y1 - 2013/6
N2 - The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.
AB - The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.
KW - climate change
KW - drought
KW - hydrology
KW - uncertainty
KW - water resources management
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U2 - 10.1080/07900627.2012.721717
DO - 10.1080/07900627.2012.721717
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84878781286
VL - 29
SP - 152
EP - 171
JO - International Journal of Water Resources Development
JF - International Journal of Water Resources Development
SN - 0790-0627
IS - 2
ER -