Abstract
The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 152-171 |
| Number of pages | 20 |
| Journal | International Journal of Water Resources Development |
| Volume | 29 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jun 2013 |
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Keywords
- climate change
- drought
- hydrology
- uncertainty
- water resources management
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Water Science and Technology
- Development
Cite this
Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-west : A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections. / Serrat-Capdevila, Aleix; Valdes, Juan B; Dominguez, Francina; Rajagopal, Seshadri.
In: International Journal of Water Resources Development, Vol. 29, No. 2, 06.2013, p. 152-171.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-west
T2 - A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections
AU - Serrat-Capdevila, Aleix
AU - Valdes, Juan B
AU - Dominguez, Francina
AU - Rajagopal, Seshadri
PY - 2013/6
Y1 - 2013/6
N2 - The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.
AB - The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.
KW - climate change
KW - drought
KW - hydrology
KW - uncertainty
KW - water resources management
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84878781286&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84878781286&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/07900627.2012.721717
DO - 10.1080/07900627.2012.721717
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84878781286
VL - 29
SP - 152
EP - 171
JO - International Journal of Water Resources Development
JF - International Journal of Water Resources Development
SN - 0790-0627
IS - 2
ER -