Climate and dengue transmission

Evidence and implications

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

165 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. Objective: We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. Methods: We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Results and Discussion: Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Conclusion: Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1264-1272
Number of pages9
JournalEnvironmental Health Perspectives
Volume121
Issue number11-12
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2013

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Dengue
Climate
Climate Change
Ecology
Dengue Virus
Aptitude
Incidence
Human Development
Culicidae
Disease Outbreaks

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Climate and dengue transmission : Evidence and implications. / Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew; Ernst, Kacey C.

In: Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 121, No. 11-12, 11.2013, p. 1264-1272.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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