Climate variability and climate change in Patagonian rivers

Rafael S. Seoane, Juan B. Valdés, Luis J. Mata

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate variability and change in precipitation and streamflows of several Patagonian basins are analysed using both parametric and non-parametric tests and simulation models. Additional hydroclimatic (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) time series, obtained using a parametric monthly water balance model, were also analysed. The climate change characteristics are defined using results from several GCMs using a climate scenario generator (MAGICC/ SCENGEN software). All GCM model results for the region show increases in temperature but are more variable in their estimates of precipitation. Synthetic traces of hydroclimatic variables, based on the GCM results, were then generated as inputs to the rainfall-runoff model. A non-parametric technique was used to evaluate the feasibility of early detection of climate change impact in the traces. The impact of climatic precursors such as ENSO (El Niño/ Southern Oscillation) in the hydroclimatology of the Patagonian basins is also analysed in this work.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)26-34
Number of pages9
JournalIAHS-AISH Publication
Issue number295
StatePublished - May 2 2005

Keywords

  • Climate variability
  • Climatic scenarios
  • Hydrological model
  • Statistical analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Oceanography

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