Complex systems models and the management of error and uncertainty

J. P. Messina, T. P. Evans, S. M. Manson, A. M. Shortridge, P. J. Deadman, P. H. Verburg

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

45 Scopus citations

Abstract

For the complex systems modeller, uncertainty is ever-present. While uncertainty cannot be eliminated, we suggest that formally incorporating an assessment of uncertainty into our models can provide great benefits. Sources of uncertainty arise from the model itself, theoretical flaws, design flaws, and logical errors. Management of uncertainty and error in complex systems models calls for a structure for uncertainty identification and a clarification of terminology. In this paper, we define complex systems and place complex systems models into a common typology leading to the introduction of complex systems specific issues of error and uncertainty. We provide examples of complex system models of land use change with foci on errors and uncertainty and finally discuss the role of data in building complex systems models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)11-25
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Land Use Science
Volume3
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2008
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Complex systems
  • Error
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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    Messina, J. P., Evans, T. P., Manson, S. M., Shortridge, A. M., Deadman, P. J., & Verburg, P. H. (2008). Complex systems models and the management of error and uncertainty. Journal of Land Use Science, 3(1), 11-25. https://doi.org/10.1080/17474230802047989