TY - GEN
T1 - Convergence of expert opinion via the wideband delphi method
T2 - 21st Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, INCOSE 2011
AU - Valerdi, Ricardo
PY - 2011/12/1
Y1 - 2011/12/1
N2 - This paper discusses the notion of collective intelligence through the application of the Wideband Delphi method as a way to obtain convergence among a group of experts. The specific application is the definition and calibration of cost estimation models that use data collected from experts as part of their calibration. Convergence is important in this case because companies need to commit to cost estimates early in the planning cycle since so many other decisions are dependent on it. Our results demonstrate that, in most cases, convergence among experts can be achieved after three roundsof the Wideband Delphi.
AB - This paper discusses the notion of collective intelligence through the application of the Wideband Delphi method as a way to obtain convergence among a group of experts. The specific application is the definition and calibration of cost estimation models that use data collected from experts as part of their calibration. Convergence is important in this case because companies need to commit to cost estimates early in the planning cycle since so many other decisions are dependent on it. Our results demonstrate that, in most cases, convergence among experts can be achieved after three roundsof the Wideband Delphi.
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M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84877905930
SN - 9781618391155
T3 - 21st Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, INCOSE 2011
SP - 1238
EP - 1251
BT - 21st Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, INCOSE 2011
Y2 - 20 June 2011 through 23 June 2011
ER -