Decision support using deterministic equivalents of probabilistic game trees

Michael L. Valenzuela, Liana Suantak, Jerzy W. Rozenblit

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

We have developed a game-theory driven decision-support tool that builds probabilistic game trees automatically from user-defined actions, rules, and states. The result of evaluating the paths in the game tree is a series of decisions which forms a decision-path representing an ε-Nash-Equilibrium. The algorithm uses certainty-equivalents to handle trade-offs between expected rewards and risks, effectively modeling the probabilistic game tree as deterministic. The resulting decision-paths correspond to player actions in the scenario. These sets of actions can be used as search patterns against a real-world database. A match to one of these patterns indicates an instance of novel behavior patterns generated by the game-theory driven decision support tool. This particular paradigm could be applied in any domain that requires anticipating and responding to adversarial agents with uncertainty, from mission planning to emergency responders to systems configuration.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2012 IEEE 19th International Conference and Workshops on Engineering of Computer-Based Systems, ECBS 2012
Pages142-149
Number of pages8
DOIs
StatePublished - May 24 2012
Event2012 IEEE 19th International Conference and Workshops on Engineering of Computer-Based Systems, ECBS 2012 - Novi Sad, Serbia
Duration: Apr 11 2012Apr 13 2012

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2012 IEEE 19th International Conference and Workshops on Engineering of Computer-Based Systems, ECBS 2012

Other

Other2012 IEEE 19th International Conference and Workshops on Engineering of Computer-Based Systems, ECBS 2012
CountrySerbia
CityNovi Sad
Period4/11/124/13/12

Keywords

  • certainty equivalents
  • decision support
  • game simulation
  • repeated game theory
  • risk aversion

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Control and Systems Engineering

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