Did the new deal solidify the 1932 Democratic realignment?

Shawn Kantor, Price V Fishback, John Joseph Wallis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The critical election of 1932 represented a turning point in the future electoral successes of the Democrats and Republicans for over three decades. This paper seeks to measure the importance of the New Deal in facilitating the Democrats' control of the federal government well into the 1960s. We test whether long-differences in the county-level electoral support for Democratic presidential candidates after the 1930s can be attributed to New Deal interventions into local economies. We also investigate more narrowly whether voters rewarded Roosevelt from 1932 to 1936 and from 1936 to 1940 for his efforts to stimulate depressed local economies. Our instrumental variable estimates indicate that increasing a county's per capita New Deal relief and public works spending from nothing to the sample mean ($145) would have increased the long-run support for the Democratic party by 2 to 2.5 percentage points. We further find that the long-run shift toward the Democratic party after 1928 was not a function of the Roosevelt landslide victory in 1932. Roosevelt's ability to win over voters during the 1936 and 1940 elections with New Deal spending, however, did matter for the long-term.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)620-633
Number of pages14
JournalExplorations in Economic History
Volume50
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2013

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Realignment
Elections
Democratic Party
Voters
Economy
Local economy
Public Works
Relief
Instrumental Variables
Republican
1960s
1930s
Turning Point
Federal Government
Federal government
Turning point
Instrumental variables

Keywords

  • 1932 realignment
  • Great Depression
  • New Deal
  • Political economy
  • Voting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • History

Cite this

Did the new deal solidify the 1932 Democratic realignment? / Kantor, Shawn; Fishback, Price V; Wallis, John Joseph.

In: Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 50, No. 4, 10.2013, p. 620-633.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Kantor, Shawn ; Fishback, Price V ; Wallis, John Joseph. / Did the new deal solidify the 1932 Democratic realignment?. In: Explorations in Economic History. 2013 ; Vol. 50, No. 4. pp. 620-633.
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