Economic and welfare impacts of climate change on developing countries

Paul Winters, Rinku Murgai, Elisabeth Sadoulet, Alain De Janvry, George Frisvold

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

28 Scopus citations

Abstract

The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-24
Number of pages24
JournalEnvironmental and Resource Economics
Volume12
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 1998
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • CGE models
  • Climate change
  • Comparative impacts
  • Poverty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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