Effect of parameter uncertainty on water quality predictions in distribution systems-case study

M. F.K. Pasha, K. Lansey

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Scopus citations

Abstract

The effect of parameter uncertainty on water quality in a distribution system under steady and unsteady conditions is analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Sources of uncertainties for water quality include decay coefficients, pipe diameter and roughness, and nodal spatial and temporal demands. Results from the system analyzed suggest that water quality estimates are robust to individual parameter estimates but the total effect of multiple parameters can be important. The largest uncertainties occur when flow patterns are altered. The study also provides guidance on difficulties in model calibration. For example, the wall decay had the larges influence on model prediction for the system that was reviewed and is one of the most difficult to measure given its variability between pipes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-21
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Hydroinformatics
Volume12
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2010

Keywords

  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Water distribution systems
  • Water quality

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Atmospheric Science

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