Effect of Temperature Thresholds on Modeled Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population dynamics

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Dynamic simulation models provide vector abundance estimates using only meteorological data. However, model outcomes may heavily depend on the assumptions used to parameterize them. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for a model of Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance using weather data from two locations where this vector is established, La Margarita, Puerto Rico and Tucson, Arizona. We tested the effect of simplifying temperature-dependent development and mortality rates and of changing development and mortality thresholds as compared with baselines estimated using biophysical models. The simplified development and mortality rates had limited effect on abundance estimates in either location. However, in Tucson, where the vector is established but has not transmitted viruses, a difference of 5 °C resulted in populations either surviving or collapsing in the hot Arizona mid-summer, depending on the temperature thresholds. We find three important implications of the observed sensitivity to temperature thresholds. First, this analysis indicates the need for better estimates of the temperature tolerance thresholds to refine entomologic risk mapping for disease vectors. Second, our results highlight the importance of extreme temperatures on vector survival at the marginal areas of this vector's distribution. Finally, the model suggests that adaptation to warmer temperatures may shift regions of pathogen transmission.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)869-877
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Medical Entomology
Volume54
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2017

Fingerprint

Aedes
Population Dynamics
Aedes aegypti
Culicidae
Diptera
population dynamics
Temperature
temperature
meteorological data
Mortality
Disease Vectors
Puerto Rico
disease vectors
Infectious Disease Transmission
Weather
dynamic models
simulation models
Viruses
viruses
pathogens

Keywords

  • Aedes aegypti
  • climate
  • population dynamics
  • temperature threshold

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • veterinary(all)
  • Insect Science
  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

Effect of Temperature Thresholds on Modeled Aedes aegypti (Diptera : Culicidae) population dynamics. / Brown, Heidi E; Barrera, Roberto; Comrie, Andrew; Lega, Joceline C.

In: Journal of Medical Entomology, Vol. 54, No. 4, 01.07.2017, p. 869-877.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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