Effect of uncertainty on water distribution system model decisions

Derya Sumer, Kevin Lansey

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Several researchers have shown that uncertainties during model calibration affect model predictions while others have examined the impact of uncertainty on model decisions. This paper discusses linking the impact of calibration uncertainties to model decisions and examining the implications of the uncertainties on future data collection efforts. To complete the analysis, model parameter uncertainty is evaluated using a first order second moment (FOSM) analysis of uncertainty that is also known as D-optimality. These uncertainties are propagated to model prediction uncertainties through a second FOSM for a set of predicted demand conditions. Finally, prediction uncertainties are embedded in alternative optimization problems to assess the effect of the uncertainties on model based decisions. If uncertainty levels are large, the monetary benefits of reducing uncertainties from additional data collection can be addressed directly by examining the change in the optimization problem objective function if additional data is available to reduce the parameter and model prediction uncertainties. This paper presents an application to a small network. An application to a realistic system is being completed. A comparison of the quality of calibration needed for a model intended to be used for design of a system expansion with that desired for optimizing pump operations will also be addressed for the same network layout.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2005
Subtitle of host publicationWater Management for the 21st Century
PublisherCentre for Water Systems
ISBN (Print)095391402X, 9780953914029
StatePublished - Jan 1 2005
Event8th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2005 - Exeter, United Kingdom
Duration: Sep 5 2005Sep 7 2005

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2005: Water Management for the 21st Century
Volume1

Other

Other8th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2005
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityExeter
Period9/5/059/7/05

Keywords

  • Calibration
  • Optimization
  • Uncertainty
  • Water distribution

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science Applications
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology

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  • Cite this

    Sumer, D., & Lansey, K. (2005). Effect of uncertainty on water distribution system model decisions. In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2005: Water Management for the 21st Century (Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2005: Water Management for the 21st Century; Vol. 1). Centre for Water Systems.