Abstract
The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO2 into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed γ), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median γ as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO2 data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for γ on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of > 200,000 members, quantification of γ is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of γ calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that γ is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P < 0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of ∼40 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest ∼80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 527-530 |
| Number of pages | 4 |
| Journal | Nature |
| Volume | 463 |
| Issue number | 7280 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 28 2010 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Fingerprint
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General
Cite this
Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate. / Frank, David C.; Esper, Jan; Raible, Christoph C.; Büntgen, Ulf; Trouet, Valerie M; Stocker, Benjamin; Joos, Fortunat.
In: Nature, Vol. 463, No. 7280, 28.01.2010, p. 527-530.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate
AU - Frank, David C.
AU - Esper, Jan
AU - Raible, Christoph C.
AU - Büntgen, Ulf
AU - Trouet, Valerie M
AU - Stocker, Benjamin
AU - Joos, Fortunat
PY - 2010/1/28
Y1 - 2010/1/28
N2 - The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO2 into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed γ), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median γ as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO2 data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for γ on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of > 200,000 members, quantification of γ is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of γ calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that γ is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P < 0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of ∼40 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest ∼80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming.
AB - The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO2 into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed γ), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median γ as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO2 data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for γ on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of > 200,000 members, quantification of γ is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of γ calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that γ is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P < 0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of ∼40 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest ∼80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=75749085855&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=75749085855&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/nature08769
DO - 10.1038/nature08769
M3 - Article
C2 - 20110999
AN - SCOPUS:75749085855
VL - 463
SP - 527
EP - 530
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
SN - 0028-0836
IS - 7280
ER -