Epoch of reionization 21 cm forecasting from MCMC-constrained semi-numerical models

Sultan Hassan, Romeel S Dave, Kristian Finlator, Mario G. Santos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The recent low value of Planck Collaboration XLVII integrated optical depth to Thomson scattering suggests that the reionization occurred fairly suddenly, disfavouring extended reionization scenarios. This will have a significant impact on the 21 cm power spectrum. Using a seminumerical framework, we improve our model from instantaneous to include time-integrated ionization and recombination effects, and find that this leads to more sudden reionization. It also yields larger HII bubbles that lead to an order of magnitude more 21 cm power on large scales, while suppressing the small-scale ionization power. Local fluctuations in the neutral hydrogen density play the dominant role in boosting the 21 cm power spectrum on large scales, while recombinations are subdominant. We use a Monte Carlo Markov chain approach to constrain our model to observations of the star formation rate functions at z = 6, 7, 8 from Bouwens et al., the Planck Collaboration XLVII optical depth measurements and the Becker & Bolton ionizing emissivity data at z ~ 5.We then use this constrained model to perform 21 cm forecasting for Low Frequency Array, Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array and Square Kilometre Array in order to determine how well such data can characterize the sources driving reionization. We find that the Mock 21 cm power spectrum alone can somewhat constrain the halo mass dependence of ionizing sources, the photon escape fraction and ionizing amplitude, but combining the Mock 21 cm data with other current observations enables us to separately constrain all these parameters. Our framework illustrates how the future 21 cm data can play a key role in understanding the sources and topology of reionization as observations improve.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)122-139
Number of pages18
JournalMonthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume468
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 11 2017
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

forecasting
power spectra
time measurement
optical thickness
optical depth
recombination
depth measurement
ionization
Thomson scattering
Markov chains
hydrogen
star formation rate
emissivity
escape
halos
Markov chain
bubbles
topology
low frequencies
bubble

Keywords

  • Cosmology: theory
  • Dark ages, reionization, first stars
  • Early universe
  • Galaxies: formation
  • Galaxies: high redshift
  • Galaxies:evolution

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Space and Planetary Science

Cite this

Epoch of reionization 21 cm forecasting from MCMC-constrained semi-numerical models. / Hassan, Sultan; Dave, Romeel S; Finlator, Kristian; Santos, Mario G.

In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 468, No. 1, 11.06.2017, p. 122-139.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Hassan, Sultan ; Dave, Romeel S ; Finlator, Kristian ; Santos, Mario G. / Epoch of reionization 21 cm forecasting from MCMC-constrained semi-numerical models. In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 2017 ; Vol. 468, No. 1. pp. 122-139.
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