Evaluating forecast skills of moisture from convective-permitting WRF-ARW Model during 2017 North American Monsoon season

Christoforus Bayu Risanto, Christopher L. Castro, James M. Moker, Avelino F. Arellano, David K. Adams, Lourdes M. Fierro, Carlos M.Minjarez Sosa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper examines the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model forecast to simulate moisture and precipitation during the North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network field campaign that took place in 2017. A convective-permitting model configuration performs daily weather forecast simulations for northwestern Mexico and southwestern United States. Model precipitable water vapor (PWV) exhibits wet biases greater than 0.5 mm at the initial forecast hour, and its diurnal cycle is out of phase with time, compared to observations. As a result, the model initiates and terminates precipitation earlier than the satellite and rain gauge measurements, underestimates the westward propagation of the convective systems, and exhibits relatively low forecast skills on the days where strong synoptic-scale forcing features are absent. Sensitivity analysis shows that model PWV in the domain is sensitive to changes in initial PWV at coastal sites, whereas the model precipitation and moisture flux convergence (QCONV) are sensitive to changes in initial PWV at the mountainous sites. Improving the initial physical states, such as PWV, potentially increases the forecast skills.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number694
JournalAtmosphere
Volume10
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2019

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precipitable water
monsoon
moisture
water vapor
weather
moisture flux
convective system
sensitivity analysis
forecast
gauge
GPS
simulation

Keywords

  • Convective-permitting parameterizations
  • Forecast skills of moisture
  • Global forecast system model
  • Global Positioning System
  • Moisture flux convergence
  • North American Mesoscale model
  • North American Monsoon precipitation
  • Precipitable water vapor
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Weather research and forecasting model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Evaluating forecast skills of moisture from convective-permitting WRF-ARW Model during 2017 North American Monsoon season. / Risanto, Christoforus Bayu; Castro, Christopher L.; Moker, James M.; Arellano, Avelino F.; Adams, David K.; Fierro, Lourdes M.; Sosa, Carlos M.Minjarez.

In: Atmosphere, Vol. 10, No. 11, 694, 01.11.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Risanto, Christoforus Bayu ; Castro, Christopher L. ; Moker, James M. ; Arellano, Avelino F. ; Adams, David K. ; Fierro, Lourdes M. ; Sosa, Carlos M.Minjarez. / Evaluating forecast skills of moisture from convective-permitting WRF-ARW Model during 2017 North American Monsoon season. In: Atmosphere. 2019 ; Vol. 10, No. 11.
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