Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids

Michael Chertkov, Mikhail Stepanov, Feng Pan, Ross Baldick

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this manuscript we continue the thread of [M. Chertkov, F. Pan, M. Stepanov, Predicting Failures in Power Grids: The Case of Static Overloads, IEEE Smart Grid 2011] and suggest a new algorithm discovering most probable extreme stochastic events in static power grids associated with intermittent generation of wind turbines. The algorithm becomes EXACT and EFFICIENT (polynomial) in the case of the proportional (or other low parametric) control of standard generation, and log-concave probability distribution of the renewable generation, assumed known from the wind forecast. We illustrate the algorithm's ability to discover problematic extreme events on the example of the IEEE RTS-96 model of transmission with additions of 10%;20% and 30% of renewable generation. We observe that the probability of failure may grow but it may also decrease with increase in renewable penetration, if the latter is sufficiently diversified and distributed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
Pages2174-2180
Number of pages7
DOIs
StatePublished - 2011
Event2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011 - Orlando, FL, United States
Duration: Dec 12 2011Dec 15 2011

Other

Other2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011
CountryUnited States
CityOrlando, FL
Period12/12/1112/15/11

Fingerprint

Exact Algorithms
Power transmission
Extremes
Efficient Algorithms
Grid
Extreme Events
Log-concave
Wind turbines
Probability distributions
Smart Grid
Wind Turbine
Overload
Probable
Polynomials
Penetration
Thread
Forecast
Probability Distribution
Continue
Directly proportional

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Control and Optimization

Cite this

Chertkov, M., Stepanov, M., Pan, F., & Baldick, R. (2011). Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids. In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (pp. 2174-2180). [6160669] https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.2011.6160669

Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids. / Chertkov, Michael; Stepanov, Mikhail; Pan, Feng; Baldick, Ross.

Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control. 2011. p. 2174-2180 6160669.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Chertkov, M, Stepanov, M, Pan, F & Baldick, R 2011, Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids. in Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control., 6160669, pp. 2174-2180, 2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011, Orlando, FL, United States, 12/12/11. https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.2011.6160669
Chertkov M, Stepanov M, Pan F, Baldick R. Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids. In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control. 2011. p. 2174-2180. 6160669 https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.2011.6160669
Chertkov, Michael ; Stepanov, Mikhail ; Pan, Feng ; Baldick, Ross. / Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids. Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control. 2011. pp. 2174-2180
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