Exact and efficient algorithm to discover extreme stochastic events in wind generation over transmission Power Grids

Michael Chertkov, Mikhail Stepanov, Feng Pan, Ross Baldick

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this manuscript we continue the thread of [M. Chertkov, F. Pan, M. Stepanov, Predicting Failures in Power Grids: The Case of Static Overloads, IEEE Smart Grid 2011] and suggest a new algorithm discovering most probable extreme stochastic events in static power grids associated with intermittent generation of wind turbines. The algorithm becomes EXACT and EFFICIENT (polynomial) in the case of the proportional (or other low parametric) control of standard generation, and log-concave probability distribution of the renewable generation, assumed known from the wind forecast. We illustrate the algorithm's ability to discover problematic extreme events on the example of the IEEE RTS-96 model of transmission with additions of 10%;20% and 30% of renewable generation. We observe that the probability of failure may grow but it may also decrease with increase in renewable penetration, if the latter is sufficiently diversified and distributed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011
Pages2174-2180
Number of pages7
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2011
Event2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011 - Orlando, FL, United States
Duration: Dec 12 2011Dec 15 2011

Publication series

NameProceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
ISSN (Print)0191-2216

Other

Other2011 50th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and European Control Conference, CDC-ECC 2011
CountryUnited States
CityOrlando, FL
Period12/12/1112/15/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Control and Optimization

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