Exploring crowds'mean belief in fixed odds betting for event prediction

Weiyun Chen, Xin Li, Dajun Zeng

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The mean belief of the crowds is a robust and accurate assessment of the state problems in decision-making. Existing auction-based prediction markets general use contract price to capture it as a basis of their predictions. In this study, we propose a model to estimate the mean belief of the crowds in fixed odds betting, which may enable the use of fixed odds betting as a prediction market mechanism. We get an approximate formula to represent the relationship among the crowds' mean belief, fixed odds and the final betting ratio by conducting a simulation of the fixed odds betting. We test the performance of the proposed model on a game betting dataset. The experiments show that our proposed model outperforms linear regression models on various combinations of features when using to predict future events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication22nd Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, WITS 2012
PublisherUniversity of Florida, Warrington College
Pages217-222
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Event22nd Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, WITS 2012 - Orlando, FL, United States
Duration: Dec 15 2012Dec 16 2012

Other

Other22nd Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, WITS 2012
CountryUnited States
CityOrlando, FL
Period12/15/1212/16/12

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Keywords

  • Fixed odds betting
  • Mean belief of crowds
  • Prediction markets

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Information Systems

Cite this

Chen, W., Li, X., & Zeng, D. (2012). Exploring crowds'mean belief in fixed odds betting for event prediction. In 22nd Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, WITS 2012 (pp. 217-222). University of Florida, Warrington College.