Exploring crowds'mean belief in fixed odds betting for event prediction

Weiyun Chen, Xin Li, Daniel Zeng

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The mean belief of the crowds is a robust and accurate assessment of the state problems in decision-making. Existing auction-based prediction markets general use contract price to capture it as a basis of their predictions. In this study, we propose a model to estimate the mean belief of the crowds in fixed odds betting, which may enable the use of fixed odds betting as a prediction market mechanism. We get an approximate formula to represent the relationship among the crowds' mean belief, fixed odds and the final betting ratio by conducting a simulation of the fixed odds betting. We test the performance of the proposed model on a game betting dataset. The experiments show that our proposed model outperforms linear regression models on various combinations of features when using to predict future events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages217-222
Number of pages6
StatePublished - Jan 1 2012
Event22nd Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, WITS 2012 - Orlando, FL, United States
Duration: Dec 15 2012Dec 16 2012

Other

Other22nd Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, WITS 2012
CountryUnited States
CityOrlando, FL
Period12/15/1212/16/12

Keywords

  • Fixed odds betting
  • Mean belief of crowds
  • Prediction markets

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Information Systems

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  • Cite this

    Chen, W., Li, X., & Zeng, D. (2012). Exploring crowds'mean belief in fixed odds betting for event prediction. 217-222. Paper presented at 22nd Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, WITS 2012, Orlando, FL, United States.