Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models

Ryan N Gutenkunst, Fergal P. Casey, Joshua J. Waterfall, Christopher R. Myers, James P. Sethna

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Pages203-211
Number of pages9
Volume1115
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2007
Externally publishedYes

Publication series

NameAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Volume1115
ISSN (Print)00778923
ISSN (Electronic)17496632

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Uncertainty
Nonlinear Dynamics
Uncertainty analysis

Keywords

  • Covariance analysis
  • Monte-Carlo
  • Prediction uncertainties
  • Sloppy models
  • Systems biology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)

Cite this

Gutenkunst, R. N., Casey, F. P., Waterfall, J. J., Myers, C. R., & Sethna, J. P. (2007). Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models. In Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences (Vol. 1115, pp. 203-211). (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences; Vol. 1115). https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1407.003

Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models. / Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P.; Waterfall, Joshua J.; Myers, Christopher R.; Sethna, James P.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Vol. 1115 2007. p. 203-211 (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences; Vol. 1115).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Gutenkunst, RN, Casey, FP, Waterfall, JJ, Myers, CR & Sethna, JP 2007, Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models. in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. vol. 1115, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1115, pp. 203-211. https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1407.003
Gutenkunst RN, Casey FP, Waterfall JJ, Myers CR, Sethna JP. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models. In Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Vol. 1115. 2007. p. 203-211. (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences). https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1407.003
Gutenkunst, Ryan N ; Casey, Fergal P. ; Waterfall, Joshua J. ; Myers, Christopher R. ; Sethna, James P. / Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Vol. 1115 2007. pp. 203-211 (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences).
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