Abstract
The limitations of available migration data preclude a time-series approach to modeling interstate migration. The method presented here combines aspects of the demographic and economic approaches to forecasting migration in a manner compatible with existing data. Migration rates are modeled to change in response to changes in economic conditions. When applied to recently constructed data on migration based on income tax returns and then compared to standard demographic projections, the demographic–economic approach has a 20% lower total error in forecasting net migration by state for cohorts of laborforce age.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 277-285 |
| Number of pages | 9 |
| Journal | Journal of the American Statistical Association |
| Volume | 80 |
| Issue number | 390 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jun 1985 |
Keywords
- Cohort-component model
- Labor-force migration
- Markov models
- Migration
- Population forecasting
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
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Cite this
Isserman, A. M., Plane, D. A., Rogerson, P. A., & Beaumont, P. M. (1985). Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: A demographic–economic approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80(390), 277-285. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1985.10478109