Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Terence E Horgan, Anna Mahtani

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We present a new argument for the claim that in the Sleeping Beauty problem, the probability that the coin comes up heads is 1/3. Our argument depends on a principle for the updating of probabilities that we call 'generalized conditionalization', and on a species of generalized conditionalization we call 'synchronic conditionalization on old information'. We set forth a rationale for the legitimacy of generalized conditionalization, and we explain why our new argument for thirdism is immune to two attacks that Pust (Synthese 160:97-101, 2008) has leveled at other arguments for thirdism.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)333-351
Number of pages19
JournalErkenntnis
Volume78
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013

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Updating
Attack
Conditionalization
Sleeping Beauty
Coins
Legitimacy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Philosophy
  • Logic

Cite this

Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem. / Horgan, Terence E; Mahtani, Anna.

In: Erkenntnis, Vol. 78, No. 2, 2013, p. 333-351.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Horgan, Terence E ; Mahtani, Anna. / Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem. In: Erkenntnis. 2013 ; Vol. 78, No. 2. pp. 333-351.
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