Hindsight Bias: Self‐Flattery or Cognitive Error?

Terence Connolly, Edward W. Bukszar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

28 Scopus citations

Abstract

Both motivational and cognitive accounts have been proposed for hindsight bias. In an experiment three groups of subjects analyzed a complex business case. One group received no outcome information. The other groups were told the outcome of the decisions made in the case. One group believed that the outcome they were given was real, the other saw the outcome generated by the toss of a coin. Both groups showed large and equal hindsight shifts on a post‐analysis questionnaire. This finding appears to weaken a self‐flattery explanation of hindsight shift, and gives support to a cognitive account.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)205-211
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Behavioral Decision Making
Volume3
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 1990

Keywords

  • Cognition
  • Hindsight bias
  • Learning
  • Motivation
  • Retrospective sensemaking

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Decision Sciences(all)
  • Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
  • Applied Psychology
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Strategy and Management

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