Abstract
Pursuit of sustainability requires a systematic approach to understand a system's specific dynamics to adapt and enhance from disturbances in social-environmental systems. We developed a systematic resilience assessment of social-environmental systems by connecting catastrophe theory and probability distribution equilibrium. Catastrophe models were used to calculate resilience shifts between slow and fast variables; afterwards, two resilience transition modes (“Less resilient” or “More resilient”) were addressed by using probability distribution equilibrium analysis. A tipping point that occurs in “Less resilient” system suggests that the critical resilience transition can be an early warning signal of approaching threshold. Catastrophic shifts were explored between the interacting social-environmental sub-systems of land use and energy (fast variables) and environmental pollution (slow variables), which also identifies the critical factors in maintaining the integrated social-environmental resilience. Furthermore, the early warning signals enable the adaptability of urban systems and their resilience to perturbations, and provide guidelines for urban social-environmental management.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 184-190 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Environment International |
| Volume | 113 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Apr 1 2018 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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Keywords
- Catastrophe theory
- Early warning
- Probability distribution equilibrium
- Social-environmental system
- Tipping point
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
Cite this
Identifying the key catastrophic variables of urban social-environmental resilience and early warning signal. / Li, Yi; Li, Yangfan; Kappas, Martin; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell.
In: Environment International, Vol. 113, 01.04.2018, p. 184-190.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Identifying the key catastrophic variables of urban social-environmental resilience and early warning signal
AU - Li, Yi
AU - Li, Yangfan
AU - Kappas, Martin
AU - Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell
PY - 2018/4/1
Y1 - 2018/4/1
N2 - Pursuit of sustainability requires a systematic approach to understand a system's specific dynamics to adapt and enhance from disturbances in social-environmental systems. We developed a systematic resilience assessment of social-environmental systems by connecting catastrophe theory and probability distribution equilibrium. Catastrophe models were used to calculate resilience shifts between slow and fast variables; afterwards, two resilience transition modes (“Less resilient” or “More resilient”) were addressed by using probability distribution equilibrium analysis. A tipping point that occurs in “Less resilient” system suggests that the critical resilience transition can be an early warning signal of approaching threshold. Catastrophic shifts were explored between the interacting social-environmental sub-systems of land use and energy (fast variables) and environmental pollution (slow variables), which also identifies the critical factors in maintaining the integrated social-environmental resilience. Furthermore, the early warning signals enable the adaptability of urban systems and their resilience to perturbations, and provide guidelines for urban social-environmental management.
AB - Pursuit of sustainability requires a systematic approach to understand a system's specific dynamics to adapt and enhance from disturbances in social-environmental systems. We developed a systematic resilience assessment of social-environmental systems by connecting catastrophe theory and probability distribution equilibrium. Catastrophe models were used to calculate resilience shifts between slow and fast variables; afterwards, two resilience transition modes (“Less resilient” or “More resilient”) were addressed by using probability distribution equilibrium analysis. A tipping point that occurs in “Less resilient” system suggests that the critical resilience transition can be an early warning signal of approaching threshold. Catastrophic shifts were explored between the interacting social-environmental sub-systems of land use and energy (fast variables) and environmental pollution (slow variables), which also identifies the critical factors in maintaining the integrated social-environmental resilience. Furthermore, the early warning signals enable the adaptability of urban systems and their resilience to perturbations, and provide guidelines for urban social-environmental management.
KW - Catastrophe theory
KW - Early warning
KW - Probability distribution equilibrium
KW - Social-environmental system
KW - Tipping point
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85041741419&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85041741419&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2018.02.006
DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2018.02.006
M3 - Article
C2 - 29428608
AN - SCOPUS:85041741419
VL - 113
SP - 184
EP - 190
JO - Environmental International
JF - Environmental International
SN - 0160-4120
ER -