Influence of bias correction on simulated landcover changes

Stephanie A. McAfee, Joellen Russell, Robert S. Webb

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Vegetation responses to climate change will provide feedbacks that could amplify or moderate regional temperature and precipitation changes. However, systematic biases in the simulation of regional climate across general circulation models (GCMs) may lead to consistent misrepresentation of vegetation changes and associated ecological processes. This study uses Kppen classification driven by simulated climate with and without bias correction. Our results indicate that because climate biases lead to inaccuracies in land cover, corrected and uncorrected analyses result in distinct land cover changes in regions (the tropics and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere) that have strong climate feedbacks, even though the climate change is identical. While a more realistic biosphere may ameliorate some model biases, our results illustrate the potential for existing errors to influence feedbacks and suggest that, as models become more complex, nuanced understanding of bias propagation will be critical in assessing the uncertainty of projections and common downscaling techniques.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL16702
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume39
Issue number16
DOIs
StatePublished - 2012

Fingerprint

land cover
climate
climate feedback
climate change
vegetation
downscaling
regional climate
biosphere
general circulation model
Northern Hemisphere
simulation
tropical regions
temperature
polar regions
projection
propagation
tropics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Geophysics

Cite this

Influence of bias correction on simulated landcover changes. / McAfee, Stephanie A.; Russell, Joellen; Webb, Robert S.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, No. 16, L16702, 2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

McAfee, Stephanie A. ; Russell, Joellen ; Webb, Robert S. / Influence of bias correction on simulated landcover changes. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2012 ; Vol. 39, No. 16.
@article{8c0ee10d32444db88b9a9b7ce35bc2e7,
title = "Influence of bias correction on simulated landcover changes",
abstract = "Vegetation responses to climate change will provide feedbacks that could amplify or moderate regional temperature and precipitation changes. However, systematic biases in the simulation of regional climate across general circulation models (GCMs) may lead to consistent misrepresentation of vegetation changes and associated ecological processes. This study uses Kppen classification driven by simulated climate with and without bias correction. Our results indicate that because climate biases lead to inaccuracies in land cover, corrected and uncorrected analyses result in distinct land cover changes in regions (the tropics and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere) that have strong climate feedbacks, even though the climate change is identical. While a more realistic biosphere may ameliorate some model biases, our results illustrate the potential for existing errors to influence feedbacks and suggest that, as models become more complex, nuanced understanding of bias propagation will be critical in assessing the uncertainty of projections and common downscaling techniques.",
author = "McAfee, {Stephanie A.} and Joellen Russell and Webb, {Robert S.}",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1029/2012GL052808",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "39",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "16",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Influence of bias correction on simulated landcover changes

AU - McAfee, Stephanie A.

AU - Russell, Joellen

AU - Webb, Robert S.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Vegetation responses to climate change will provide feedbacks that could amplify or moderate regional temperature and precipitation changes. However, systematic biases in the simulation of regional climate across general circulation models (GCMs) may lead to consistent misrepresentation of vegetation changes and associated ecological processes. This study uses Kppen classification driven by simulated climate with and without bias correction. Our results indicate that because climate biases lead to inaccuracies in land cover, corrected and uncorrected analyses result in distinct land cover changes in regions (the tropics and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere) that have strong climate feedbacks, even though the climate change is identical. While a more realistic biosphere may ameliorate some model biases, our results illustrate the potential for existing errors to influence feedbacks and suggest that, as models become more complex, nuanced understanding of bias propagation will be critical in assessing the uncertainty of projections and common downscaling techniques.

AB - Vegetation responses to climate change will provide feedbacks that could amplify or moderate regional temperature and precipitation changes. However, systematic biases in the simulation of regional climate across general circulation models (GCMs) may lead to consistent misrepresentation of vegetation changes and associated ecological processes. This study uses Kppen classification driven by simulated climate with and without bias correction. Our results indicate that because climate biases lead to inaccuracies in land cover, corrected and uncorrected analyses result in distinct land cover changes in regions (the tropics and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere) that have strong climate feedbacks, even though the climate change is identical. While a more realistic biosphere may ameliorate some model biases, our results illustrate the potential for existing errors to influence feedbacks and suggest that, as models become more complex, nuanced understanding of bias propagation will be critical in assessing the uncertainty of projections and common downscaling techniques.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84865656636&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84865656636&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2012GL052808

DO - 10.1029/2012GL052808

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84865656636

VL - 39

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 16

M1 - L16702

ER -