Less water: How will agriculture in Southern Mountain states adapt?

George B Frisvold, Kazim Konyar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

23 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study examined how agriculture in six southwestern states might adapt to large reductions in water supplies, using the U.S. Agricultural Resource Model (USARM), a multiregion, multicommodity agricultural sector model. In the simulation, irrigation water supplies were reduced 25% in five Southern Mountain (SM) states and by 5% in California. USARM results were compared to those from a "rationing" model, which assumes no input substitution or changes in water use intensity, relying on land fallowing as the only means of adapting to water scarcity. The rationing model also ignores changes in output prices. Results quantify the importance of economic adjustment mechanisms and changes in output prices. Under the rationing model, SM irrigators lose $65 in net income. Compared to this price exogenous, "land-fallowing only" response, allowing irrigators to change cropping patterns, practice deficit irrigation, and adjust use of other inputs reduced irrigator costs of water shortages to $22 million. Allowing irrigators to pass on price increases to purchasers reduced income losses further, to $15 million. Higher crop prices from reduced production imposed direct losses of $130 million on first purchasers of crops, which include livestock and dairy producers, and cotton gins. SM agriculture, as a whole, was resilient to the water supply shock, with production of high value specialty crops along the Lower Colorado River little affected. Particular crops were vulnerable however. Cotton production and net returns fell substantially, while reductions in water devoted to alfalfa accounted for 57% of regional water reduction.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberW05534
JournalWater Resources Research
Volume48
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - 2012

Fingerprint

agriculture
mountain
crop
water supply
water
cotton
income
irrigation
adjustment mechanism
resource
alfalfa
water use
cropping practice
livestock
substitution
price
economics
river
cost
simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Less water : How will agriculture in Southern Mountain states adapt? / Frisvold, George B; Konyar, Kazim.

In: Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, No. 5, W05534, 2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{3f0b04faa2c04908862d4634fca29f20,
title = "Less water: How will agriculture in Southern Mountain states adapt?",
abstract = "This study examined how agriculture in six southwestern states might adapt to large reductions in water supplies, using the U.S. Agricultural Resource Model (USARM), a multiregion, multicommodity agricultural sector model. In the simulation, irrigation water supplies were reduced 25{\%} in five Southern Mountain (SM) states and by 5{\%} in California. USARM results were compared to those from a {"}rationing{"} model, which assumes no input substitution or changes in water use intensity, relying on land fallowing as the only means of adapting to water scarcity. The rationing model also ignores changes in output prices. Results quantify the importance of economic adjustment mechanisms and changes in output prices. Under the rationing model, SM irrigators lose $65 in net income. Compared to this price exogenous, {"}land-fallowing only{"} response, allowing irrigators to change cropping patterns, practice deficit irrigation, and adjust use of other inputs reduced irrigator costs of water shortages to $22 million. Allowing irrigators to pass on price increases to purchasers reduced income losses further, to $15 million. Higher crop prices from reduced production imposed direct losses of $130 million on first purchasers of crops, which include livestock and dairy producers, and cotton gins. SM agriculture, as a whole, was resilient to the water supply shock, with production of high value specialty crops along the Lower Colorado River little affected. Particular crops were vulnerable however. Cotton production and net returns fell substantially, while reductions in water devoted to alfalfa accounted for 57{\%} of regional water reduction.",
author = "Frisvold, {George B} and Kazim Konyar",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1029/2011WR011057",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "48",
journal = "Water Resources Research",
issn = "0043-1397",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Less water

T2 - How will agriculture in Southern Mountain states adapt?

AU - Frisvold, George B

AU - Konyar, Kazim

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - This study examined how agriculture in six southwestern states might adapt to large reductions in water supplies, using the U.S. Agricultural Resource Model (USARM), a multiregion, multicommodity agricultural sector model. In the simulation, irrigation water supplies were reduced 25% in five Southern Mountain (SM) states and by 5% in California. USARM results were compared to those from a "rationing" model, which assumes no input substitution or changes in water use intensity, relying on land fallowing as the only means of adapting to water scarcity. The rationing model also ignores changes in output prices. Results quantify the importance of economic adjustment mechanisms and changes in output prices. Under the rationing model, SM irrigators lose $65 in net income. Compared to this price exogenous, "land-fallowing only" response, allowing irrigators to change cropping patterns, practice deficit irrigation, and adjust use of other inputs reduced irrigator costs of water shortages to $22 million. Allowing irrigators to pass on price increases to purchasers reduced income losses further, to $15 million. Higher crop prices from reduced production imposed direct losses of $130 million on first purchasers of crops, which include livestock and dairy producers, and cotton gins. SM agriculture, as a whole, was resilient to the water supply shock, with production of high value specialty crops along the Lower Colorado River little affected. Particular crops were vulnerable however. Cotton production and net returns fell substantially, while reductions in water devoted to alfalfa accounted for 57% of regional water reduction.

AB - This study examined how agriculture in six southwestern states might adapt to large reductions in water supplies, using the U.S. Agricultural Resource Model (USARM), a multiregion, multicommodity agricultural sector model. In the simulation, irrigation water supplies were reduced 25% in five Southern Mountain (SM) states and by 5% in California. USARM results were compared to those from a "rationing" model, which assumes no input substitution or changes in water use intensity, relying on land fallowing as the only means of adapting to water scarcity. The rationing model also ignores changes in output prices. Results quantify the importance of economic adjustment mechanisms and changes in output prices. Under the rationing model, SM irrigators lose $65 in net income. Compared to this price exogenous, "land-fallowing only" response, allowing irrigators to change cropping patterns, practice deficit irrigation, and adjust use of other inputs reduced irrigator costs of water shortages to $22 million. Allowing irrigators to pass on price increases to purchasers reduced income losses further, to $15 million. Higher crop prices from reduced production imposed direct losses of $130 million on first purchasers of crops, which include livestock and dairy producers, and cotton gins. SM agriculture, as a whole, was resilient to the water supply shock, with production of high value specialty crops along the Lower Colorado River little affected. Particular crops were vulnerable however. Cotton production and net returns fell substantially, while reductions in water devoted to alfalfa accounted for 57% of regional water reduction.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84861361751&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84861361751&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2011WR011057

DO - 10.1029/2011WR011057

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84861361751

VL - 48

JO - Water Resources Research

JF - Water Resources Research

SN - 0043-1397

IS - 5

M1 - W05534

ER -