Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework

Benjamin Blonder, David Nogués-Bravo, Michael K. Borregaard, John C. Donoghue, Peter M. Jørgensen, Nathan J B Kraft, Jean Philippe Lessard, Naia Morueta-Holme, Brody Sandel, Jens Christian Svenning, Cyrille Violle, Carsten Rahbek, Brian Enquist

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14 000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial-interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)972-985
Number of pages14
JournalEcology
Volume96
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Apr 1 2015

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Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Climate mismatch
  • Community assembly
  • Community structure
  • Disequilibrium
  • Environmental filtering
  • Fundamental niche
  • Lag
  • New World forests
  • Regional species pool

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Blonder, B., Nogués-Bravo, D., Borregaard, M. K., Donoghue, J. C., Jørgensen, P. M., Kraft, N. J. B., ... Enquist, B. (2015). Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework. Ecology, 96(4), 972-985.