Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus

N. A. Hartemink, B. V. Purse, R. Meiswinkel, Heidi E Brown, A. de Koeijer, A. R W Elbers, G. J. Boender, D. J. Rogers, J. A P Heesterbeek

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

74 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R0. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)153-161
Number of pages9
JournalEpidemics
Volume1
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2009
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Basic Reproduction Number
Bluetongue virus
Disease Vectors
Satellite Imagery
Bluetongue
Geographic Information Systems
Netherlands
Disease Outbreaks

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Emerging diseases
  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious diseases
  • Risk maps

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Microbiology
  • Parasitology
  • Virology

Cite this

Hartemink, N. A., Purse, B. V., Meiswinkel, R., Brown, H. E., de Koeijer, A., Elbers, A. R. W., ... Heesterbeek, J. A. P. (2009). Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus. Epidemics, 1(3), 153-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004

Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases : A case study on bluetongue virus. / Hartemink, N. A.; Purse, B. V.; Meiswinkel, R.; Brown, Heidi E; de Koeijer, A.; Elbers, A. R W; Boender, G. J.; Rogers, D. J.; Heesterbeek, J. A P.

In: Epidemics, Vol. 1, No. 3, 09.2009, p. 153-161.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Hartemink, NA, Purse, BV, Meiswinkel, R, Brown, HE, de Koeijer, A, Elbers, ARW, Boender, GJ, Rogers, DJ & Heesterbeek, JAP 2009, 'Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus', Epidemics, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 153-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004
Hartemink, N. A. ; Purse, B. V. ; Meiswinkel, R. ; Brown, Heidi E ; de Koeijer, A. ; Elbers, A. R W ; Boender, G. J. ; Rogers, D. J. ; Heesterbeek, J. A P. / Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases : A case study on bluetongue virus. In: Epidemics. 2009 ; Vol. 1, No. 3. pp. 153-161.
@article{1e0f7fe5dc924df0b7a8a0df0ec90e8d,
title = "Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus",
abstract = "Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R0. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.",
keywords = "Climate change, Emerging diseases, Epidemiology, Infectious diseases, Risk maps",
author = "Hartemink, {N. A.} and Purse, {B. V.} and R. Meiswinkel and Brown, {Heidi E} and {de Koeijer}, A. and Elbers, {A. R W} and Boender, {G. J.} and Rogers, {D. J.} and Heesterbeek, {J. A P}",
year = "2009",
month = "9",
doi = "10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "1",
pages = "153--161",
journal = "Epidemics",
issn = "1755-4365",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases

T2 - A case study on bluetongue virus

AU - Hartemink, N. A.

AU - Purse, B. V.

AU - Meiswinkel, R.

AU - Brown, Heidi E

AU - de Koeijer, A.

AU - Elbers, A. R W

AU - Boender, G. J.

AU - Rogers, D. J.

AU - Heesterbeek, J. A P

PY - 2009/9

Y1 - 2009/9

N2 - Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R0. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

AB - Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R0. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

KW - Climate change

KW - Emerging diseases

KW - Epidemiology

KW - Infectious diseases

KW - Risk maps

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=70350570511&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=70350570511&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004

DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004

M3 - Article

C2 - 21352762

AN - SCOPUS:70350570511

VL - 1

SP - 153

EP - 161

JO - Epidemics

JF - Epidemics

SN - 1755-4365

IS - 3

ER -