Modeling schedule recovery processes in transit operations for bus arrival time prediction

Wei Hua Lin, Robert L. Bertini

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Many existing algorithms for bus arrival time prediction assume that buses travel at free-flow speed in the absence of congestion. As a result, delay incurred at one stop would propagate to the downstream stops in the same magnitude. In reality, good bus operators often constantly adjust their speeds to keep the bus on schedule. This paper formulates n Markov chain model for bus arrival time prediction that explicitly captures the behavior of bus operators in pursuing schedule recovery. The model exhibits some desirable properties in capturing the schedule recovery process and guarantees provision of the schedule information if realtime information .suddenly becomes unavailable. The proposed model can he embedded into a transit arrival time estimation model for transit information systems.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationIEEE 5th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2002 - Proceedings
EditorsDer-Horng Lee, Dipti Srinivasan, Ruey Long Cheu
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages857-862
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)0780373898
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2002
Event5th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2002 - Singapore, Singapore
Duration: Sep 3 2002Sep 6 2002

Publication series

NameIEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC
Volume2002-January

Other

Other5th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2002
CountrySingapore
CitySingapore
Period9/3/029/6/02

Keywords

  • Advanced vehicle location systems
  • GPS
  • Markov chain model
  • Transit systems

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications

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  • Cite this

    Lin, W. H., & Bertini, R. L. (2002). Modeling schedule recovery processes in transit operations for bus arrival time prediction. In D-H. Lee, D. Srinivasan, & R. L. Cheu (Eds.), IEEE 5th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2002 - Proceedings (pp. 857-862). [1041332] (IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC; Vol. 2002-January). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2002.1041332