@article{ef325627bcb54aaeaaf2b5e54fbd4773,
title = "Monsoons climate change assessment",
abstract = "Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset.",
author = "Bin Wang and Michela Biasutti and Byrne, {Michael P.} and Christopher Castro and Chang, {Chih Pei} and Kerry Cook and Rong Fu and Grimm, {Alice M.} and Ha, {Kyung Ja} and Harry Hendon and Akio Kitoh and R. Krishnan and Lee, {June Yi} and Jianping Li and Jian Liu and Aurel Moise and Salvatore Pascale and Roxy, {M. K.} and Anji Seth and Sui, {Chung Hsiung} and Andrew Turner and Song Yang and Yun, {Kyung Sook} and Lixia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou",
note = "Funding Information: a task of the World Meteorologi- cal Organization{\textquoteright}s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). All authors are invited experts by the WMO/WWRP Work- ing Group for Tropical Meteorol- ogy Research. We wish to thank Sun Yat-sen University for hosting the WMO Workshop on Monsoon Climate Change Assessment in Zhuhai, China, in which this re- view was discussed. This work was supported in part by the Na- tional Key R&D Program of China under Grant 2019YFC1510400 and the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 91637208 to Sun Yat-sen Univer- sity, and the following agencies and Grant/Project numbers for individual coauthors: NSF 1612904 (Biasutti), 1701520 (Cook), 1917781 (Fu), 1540783 (Wang), 1128040 (Grimm); Institute for Basic Science IBS-R028-D1 (Ha, Lee, and Yun); National Natural Science Foundation of China 41420104002 and 41971108 (Liu), 41675076 (Zhang); International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences 134111 KYSB20160031 (Zhou); MOST 108-2119-M-002-022 (Chang), 106-2111-M-002-003-001-MY2 (Sui and Chang), 108-2111-M-002-016-(Sui); Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India (Krishnan and Roxy); MEXT Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models JPMXD0717935561 (Kitoh); NERC NE/N018591/1 and NE/S004890/1 (Turner); U.S. Departments of Defense and Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program RC-2205 (Castro); Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research CRN3035 (Grimm); European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Marie Sk{\l}odowska-Curie Grant Agreement 794063 (Byrne). Funding Information: Acknowledgments. This work is a task of the World Meteorological Organization?s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). All authors are invited experts by the WMO/WWRP Working Group for Tropical Meteorology Research. We wish to thank Sun Yat-sen University for hosting the WMO Workshop on Monsoon Climate Change Assessment in Zhuhai, China, in which this review was discussed. This work was supported in part by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant 2019YFC1510400 and the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 91637208 to Sun Yat-sen University, and the following agencies and Grant/Project numbers for individual coauthors: NSF 1612904 (Biasutti), 1701520 (Cook), 1917781 (Fu), 1540783 (Wang), 1128040 (Grimm); Institute for Basic Science IBS-R028-D1 (Ha, Lee, and Yun); National Natural Science Foundation of China 41420104002 and 41971108 (Liu), 41675076 (Zhang); International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences 134111 KYSB20160031 (Zhou); MOST 108-2119-M-002-022 (Chang), 106-2111-M-002-003-001-MY2 (Sui and Chang), 108-2111-M-002-016- (Sui); Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India (Krishnan and Roxy); MEXT Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models JPMXD0717935561 (Kitoh); NERC NE/N018591/1 and NE/S004890/1 (Turner); U.S. Departments of Defense and Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program RC-2205 (Castro); Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research CRN3035 (Grimm); European Union?s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Marie Sk?odowska-Curie Grant Agreement 794063 (Byrne). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 American Meteorological Society.",
year = "2021",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0335.1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "102",
pages = "E1--E19",
journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",
issn = "0003-0007",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "1",
}