Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

N. G. McDowell, A. P. Williams, C. Xu, W. T. Pockman, L. T. Dickman, S. Sevanto, R. Pangle, J. Limousin, J. Plaut, D. S. Mackay, J. Ogee, J. C. Domec, C. D. Allen, R. A. Fisher, X. Jiang, J. D. Muss, David D Breshears, S. A. Rauscher, C. Koven

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

147 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (pd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET pd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)295-300
Number of pages6
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume6
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2016

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evergreen tree
coniferous tree
mortality
prediction
temperature
drought
vegetation
twenty first century
stomatal conductance
carbohydrate
global warming
Northern Hemisphere
photosynthesis
hydraulics
twenty-first century
water
simulation
ability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

McDowell, N. G., Williams, A. P., Xu, C., Pockman, W. T., Dickman, L. T., Sevanto, S., ... Koven, C. (2016). Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. Nature Climate Change, 6(3), 295-300. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2873

Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. / McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, David D; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 3, 01.03.2016, p. 295-300.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

McDowell, NG, Williams, AP, Xu, C, Pockman, WT, Dickman, LT, Sevanto, S, Pangle, R, Limousin, J, Plaut, J, Mackay, DS, Ogee, J, Domec, JC, Allen, CD, Fisher, RA, Jiang, X, Muss, JD, Breshears, DD, Rauscher, SA & Koven, C 2016, 'Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise', Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 295-300. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2873
McDowell NG, Williams AP, Xu C, Pockman WT, Dickman LT, Sevanto S et al. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. Nature Climate Change. 2016 Mar 1;6(3):295-300. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2873
McDowell, N. G. ; Williams, A. P. ; Xu, C. ; Pockman, W. T. ; Dickman, L. T. ; Sevanto, S. ; Pangle, R. ; Limousin, J. ; Plaut, J. ; Mackay, D. S. ; Ogee, J. ; Domec, J. C. ; Allen, C. D. ; Fisher, R. A. ; Jiang, X. ; Muss, J. D. ; Breshears, David D ; Rauscher, S. A. ; Koven, C. / Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. In: Nature Climate Change. 2016 ; Vol. 6, No. 3. pp. 295-300.
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