Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events

Mojtaba Sadegh, Hamed Moftakhari, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, Elisa Ragno, Omid Mazdiyasni, Brett Sanders, Richard Matthew, Amir AghaKouchak

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula-based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5470-5480
Number of pages11
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume45
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 16 2018

Fingerprint

extreme event
quantiles
risk assessment
hazards
hazard
drought
inference
analysis
oceans
flooding
infrastructure
heat
thresholds
ocean

Keywords

  • Bayesian inference
  • compound extremes
  • copula
  • multihazard scenario
  • uncertainty assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

Sadegh, M., Moftakhari, H., Gupta, H. V., Ragno, E., Mazdiyasni, O., Sanders, B., ... AghaKouchak, A. (2018). Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(11), 5470-5480. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077317

Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events. / Sadegh, Mojtaba; Moftakhari, Hamed; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai; Ragno, Elisa; Mazdiyasni, Omid; Sanders, Brett; Matthew, Richard; AghaKouchak, Amir.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, No. 11, 16.06.2018, p. 5470-5480.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sadegh, M, Moftakhari, H, Gupta, HV, Ragno, E, Mazdiyasni, O, Sanders, B, Matthew, R & AghaKouchak, A 2018, 'Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 45, no. 11, pp. 5470-5480. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077317
Sadegh M, Moftakhari H, Gupta HV, Ragno E, Mazdiyasni O, Sanders B et al. Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events. Geophysical Research Letters. 2018 Jun 16;45(11):5470-5480. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077317
Sadegh, Mojtaba ; Moftakhari, Hamed ; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai ; Ragno, Elisa ; Mazdiyasni, Omid ; Sanders, Brett ; Matthew, Richard ; AghaKouchak, Amir. / Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2018 ; Vol. 45, No. 11. pp. 5470-5480.
@article{8188cc7dc6fb4e8fa11742b10109624d,
title = "Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events",
abstract = "Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula-based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles.",
keywords = "Bayesian inference, compound extremes, copula, multihazard scenario, uncertainty assessment",
author = "Mojtaba Sadegh and Hamed Moftakhari and Gupta, {Hoshin Vijai} and Elisa Ragno and Omid Mazdiyasni and Brett Sanders and Richard Matthew and Amir AghaKouchak",
year = "2018",
month = "6",
day = "16",
doi = "10.1029/2018GL077317",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "45",
pages = "5470--5480",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events

AU - Sadegh, Mojtaba

AU - Moftakhari, Hamed

AU - Gupta, Hoshin Vijai

AU - Ragno, Elisa

AU - Mazdiyasni, Omid

AU - Sanders, Brett

AU - Matthew, Richard

AU - AghaKouchak, Amir

PY - 2018/6/16

Y1 - 2018/6/16

N2 - Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula-based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles.

AB - Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula-based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles.

KW - Bayesian inference

KW - compound extremes

KW - copula

KW - multihazard scenario

KW - uncertainty assessment

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048961539&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85048961539&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2018GL077317

DO - 10.1029/2018GL077317

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85048961539

VL - 45

SP - 5470

EP - 5480

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 11

ER -