Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events

Mojtaba Sadegh, Hamed Moftakhari, Hoshin V. Gupta, Elisa Ragno, Omid Mazdiyasni, Brett Sanders, Richard Matthew, Amir AghaKouchak

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula-based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5470-5480
Number of pages11
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume45
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 16 2018

Keywords

  • Bayesian inference
  • compound extremes
  • copula
  • multihazard scenario
  • uncertainty assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Sadegh, M., Moftakhari, H., Gupta, H. V., Ragno, E., Mazdiyasni, O., Sanders, B., Matthew, R., & AghaKouchak, A. (2018). Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(11), 5470-5480. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077317