Nonlinear model for drought forecasting based on a conjunction of wavelet transforms and neural networks

Tae Woong Kim, Juan B. Vald́es

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

287 Scopus citations

Abstract

Droughts are destructive climatic extreme events that may cause significant damage both in natural environments and in human lives. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the control and management of water resources systems. In this study, a conjunction model is presented to forecast droughts. The proposed conjunction model is based on dyadic wavelet transforms and neural networks. Neural networks have shown great ability in modeling and forecasting nonlinear and nonstationary time series in a water resources engineering, and wavelet transforms provide useful decompositions of an original time series. The wavelet-transformed data aid in improving the model performance by capturing helpful information on various resolution levels. Neural networks are used to forecast decomposed subsignals in various resolution levels and reconstruct forecasted subsignals. The model was applied to forecast droughts in the Conchos River Basin in Mexico, which is the most important tributary of the Lower Rio Grande/Bravo. The performance of the conjunction model was measured using various forecast skill criteria. The results indicate that the conjunction model significantly improves the ability of neural networks to forecast the indexed regional drought.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)319-328
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume8
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2003

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Keywords

  • Droughts
  • Forecasting
  • Mexico
  • Models
  • Neural networks

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Environmental Science(all)

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