Oscillations and chaos in epidemics: A nonlinear dynamic study of six childhood diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark

L. F. Olsen, G. L. Truty, W. M. Schaffer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

136 Scopus citations

Abstract

Using traditional spectral analysis and recently developed non-linear methods, we analyze the incidence of six childhood diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark. In three cases, measles, mumps, rubella, the dynamics suggest low dimensional chaos. Outbreaks of chicken pox, on the other hand, conform to an annual cycle with noise superimposed. The remaining diseases, pertussis and scarlet fever, remain problematic. The real epidemics are compared with the output of a Monte Carlo analog of the SEIR model for childhood infections. For measles, mumps, rubella, and chicken pox, we find substantial agreement between the model simulations and the data.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)344-370
Number of pages27
JournalTheoretical Population Biology
Volume33
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1988

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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