Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Connor Nolan, Jonathan Overpeck, Judy R.M. Allen, Patricia M. Anderson, Julio L. Betancourt, Heather A. Binney, Simon Brewer, Mark B. Bush, Brian M. Chase, Rachid Cheddadi, Morteza Djamali, John Dodson, Mary E. Edwards, William D. Gosling, Simon Haberle, Sara C. Hotchkiss, Brian Huntley, Sarah J. Ivory, A. Peter Kershaw, Soo Hyun KimClaudio Latorre, Michelle Leydet, Anne Marie Lézine, Kam Biu Liu, Yao Liu, A. V. Lozhkin, Matt S. McGlone, Robert A. Marchant, Arata Momohara, Patricio I. Moreno, Stefanie Müller, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Caiming Shen, Janelle Stevenson, Hikaru Takahara, Pavel E. Tarasov, John Tipton, Annie Vincens, Chengyu Weng, Qinghai Xu, Zhuo Zheng, Stephen T. Jackson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

48 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)920-923
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume361
Issue number6405
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 31 2018

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Climate Change
Ecosystem
Biodiversity
Atmosphere
Gases
Temperature

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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Nolan, C., Overpeck, J., Allen, J. R. M., Anderson, P. M., Betancourt, J. L., Binney, H. A., ... Jackson, S. T. (2018). Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science, 361(6405), 920-923. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. / Nolan, Connor; Overpeck, Jonathan; Allen, Judy R.M.; Anderson, Patricia M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Binney, Heather A.; Brewer, Simon; Bush, Mark B.; Chase, Brian M.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Djamali, Morteza; Dodson, John; Edwards, Mary E.; Gosling, William D.; Haberle, Simon; Hotchkiss, Sara C.; Huntley, Brian; Ivory, Sarah J.; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kim, Soo Hyun; Latorre, Claudio; Leydet, Michelle; Lézine, Anne Marie; Liu, Kam Biu; Liu, Yao; Lozhkin, A. V.; McGlone, Matt S.; Marchant, Robert A.; Momohara, Arata; Moreno, Patricio I.; Müller, Stefanie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Shen, Caiming; Stevenson, Janelle; Takahara, Hikaru; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Tipton, John; Vincens, Annie; Weng, Chengyu; Xu, Qinghai; Zheng, Zhuo; Jackson, Stephen T.

In: Science, Vol. 361, No. 6405, 31.08.2018, p. 920-923.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Nolan, C, Overpeck, J, Allen, JRM, Anderson, PM, Betancourt, JL, Binney, HA, Brewer, S, Bush, MB, Chase, BM, Cheddadi, R, Djamali, M, Dodson, J, Edwards, ME, Gosling, WD, Haberle, S, Hotchkiss, SC, Huntley, B, Ivory, SJ, Kershaw, AP, Kim, SH, Latorre, C, Leydet, M, Lézine, AM, Liu, KB, Liu, Y, Lozhkin, AV, McGlone, MS, Marchant, RA, Momohara, A, Moreno, PI, Müller, S, Otto-Bliesner, BL, Shen, C, Stevenson, J, Takahara, H, Tarasov, PE, Tipton, J, Vincens, A, Weng, C, Xu, Q, Zheng, Z & Jackson, ST 2018, 'Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change', Science, vol. 361, no. 6405, pp. 920-923. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360
Nolan C, Overpeck J, Allen JRM, Anderson PM, Betancourt JL, Binney HA et al. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science. 2018 Aug 31;361(6405):920-923. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360
Nolan, Connor ; Overpeck, Jonathan ; Allen, Judy R.M. ; Anderson, Patricia M. ; Betancourt, Julio L. ; Binney, Heather A. ; Brewer, Simon ; Bush, Mark B. ; Chase, Brian M. ; Cheddadi, Rachid ; Djamali, Morteza ; Dodson, John ; Edwards, Mary E. ; Gosling, William D. ; Haberle, Simon ; Hotchkiss, Sara C. ; Huntley, Brian ; Ivory, Sarah J. ; Kershaw, A. Peter ; Kim, Soo Hyun ; Latorre, Claudio ; Leydet, Michelle ; Lézine, Anne Marie ; Liu, Kam Biu ; Liu, Yao ; Lozhkin, A. V. ; McGlone, Matt S. ; Marchant, Robert A. ; Momohara, Arata ; Moreno, Patricio I. ; Müller, Stefanie ; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. ; Shen, Caiming ; Stevenson, Janelle ; Takahara, Hikaru ; Tarasov, Pavel E. ; Tipton, John ; Vincens, Annie ; Weng, Chengyu ; Xu, Qinghai ; Zheng, Zhuo ; Jackson, Stephen T. / Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. In: Science. 2018 ; Vol. 361, No. 6405. pp. 920-923.
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AU - Müller, Stefanie

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AU - Shen, Caiming

AU - Stevenson, Janelle

AU - Takahara, Hikaru

AU - Tarasov, Pavel E.

AU - Tipton, John

AU - Vincens, Annie

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