Predictability in community dynamics

Benjamin Blonder, Derek E. Moulton, Jessica Blois, Brian Enquist, Bente J. Graae, Marc Macias-Fauria, Brian McGill, Sandra Nogué, Alejandro Ordonez, Brody Sandel, Jens Christian Svenning

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)293-306
Number of pages14
JournalEcology Letters
Volume20
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2017

Fingerprint

community dynamics
climate change
community ecology
disequilibrium
community composition
biogeography
ecology
climate
prediction
modeling
methodology

Keywords

  • Alternate states
  • chaos
  • climate change
  • community assembly
  • community climate
  • community response diagram
  • disequilibrium
  • hysteresis
  • lag
  • memory effects

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Blonder, B., Moulton, D. E., Blois, J., Enquist, B., Graae, B. J., Macias-Fauria, M., ... Svenning, J. C. (2017). Predictability in community dynamics. Ecology Letters, 20(3), 293-306. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12736

Predictability in community dynamics. / Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E.; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian; Graae, Bente J.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens Christian.

In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 20, No. 3, 01.03.2017, p. 293-306.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Blonder, B, Moulton, DE, Blois, J, Enquist, B, Graae, BJ, Macias-Fauria, M, McGill, B, Nogué, S, Ordonez, A, Sandel, B & Svenning, JC 2017, 'Predictability in community dynamics', Ecology Letters, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 293-306. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12736
Blonder B, Moulton DE, Blois J, Enquist B, Graae BJ, Macias-Fauria M et al. Predictability in community dynamics. Ecology Letters. 2017 Mar 1;20(3):293-306. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12736
Blonder, Benjamin ; Moulton, Derek E. ; Blois, Jessica ; Enquist, Brian ; Graae, Bente J. ; Macias-Fauria, Marc ; McGill, Brian ; Nogué, Sandra ; Ordonez, Alejandro ; Sandel, Brody ; Svenning, Jens Christian. / Predictability in community dynamics. In: Ecology Letters. 2017 ; Vol. 20, No. 3. pp. 293-306.
@article{747a976d0c38420c894b41ae6b37b726,
title = "Predictability in community dynamics",
abstract = "The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.",
keywords = "Alternate states, chaos, climate change, community assembly, community climate, community response diagram, disequilibrium, hysteresis, lag, memory effects",
author = "Benjamin Blonder and Moulton, {Derek E.} and Jessica Blois and Brian Enquist and Graae, {Bente J.} and Marc Macias-Fauria and Brian McGill and Sandra Nogu{\'e} and Alejandro Ordonez and Brody Sandel and Svenning, {Jens Christian}",
year = "2017",
month = "3",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/ele.12736",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "20",
pages = "293--306",
journal = "Ecology Letters",
issn = "1461-023X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predictability in community dynamics

AU - Blonder, Benjamin

AU - Moulton, Derek E.

AU - Blois, Jessica

AU - Enquist, Brian

AU - Graae, Bente J.

AU - Macias-Fauria, Marc

AU - McGill, Brian

AU - Nogué, Sandra

AU - Ordonez, Alejandro

AU - Sandel, Brody

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

PY - 2017/3/1

Y1 - 2017/3/1

N2 - The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.

AB - The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.

KW - Alternate states

KW - chaos

KW - climate change

KW - community assembly

KW - community climate

KW - community response diagram

KW - disequilibrium

KW - hysteresis

KW - lag

KW - memory effects

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85011332603&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85011332603&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/ele.12736

DO - 10.1111/ele.12736

M3 - Article

VL - 20

SP - 293

EP - 306

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

SN - 1461-023X

IS - 3

ER -