Predicting popularity of forum threads for public events security

Qingchao Kong, Wenji Mao, Daniel Zeng, Lei Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Web user's online interactive behavior with others often makes some user generated contents popular. The modeling and prediction of the popularity of online content are an important research issue for many key application domains. In this paper, we focus on one form of user generated content, forum threads, and their popularity prediction for public events security. To predict the popularity of forum threads, we first define the popularity prediction problem, and identify the dynamic factors that affect the popularity of forum threads. Based on the information of dynamic evolution at the early stage, we propose a popularity prediction algorithm which makes use of the locality property and combines multiple dynamic factors. The proposed algorithm is further evaluated using the Tianya forum dataset on the discussions of various public events. The experimental results show that, compared to the baseline methods, our method achieves relatively better performance in predicting the popularity of forum threads on public events security.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2014 IEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, JISIC 2014
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages99-106
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781479963645
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 4 2014
Event2014 IEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, JISIC 2014 - The Hague, Netherlands
Duration: Sep 24 2014Sep 26 2014

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2014 IEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, JISIC 2014

Other

Other2014 IEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, JISIC 2014
CountryNetherlands
CityThe Hague
Period9/24/149/26/14

Keywords

  • modeling and prediction of popularity evolution
  • popularity of online content
  • social media analytics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Information Systems
  • Software

Cite this